vorosmccracken.com

Have finished writing the code for the World Cup Simulations. Some features in this one: 1. 10,000 sims as usual. 2. Results of all 640,000 matches in dump file. 3. Win percentages for each team in both percentage and fractional odds form. 4. Current version alternates between CONMEBOL/CAF and CONMEBOL/AFC/OFC composition of pots. Will change […]

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Three more teams are in, the final six will be known by tomorrow night. The updated National Team Rankings can be found here. Full qualification chances can be found here.

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Okay, there’s 9 spots left, 4 in Europe, 3 in Africa and 2 more in playoffs between Asia and Oceania and North and South America. An important note: One minor change has been made to the National Team rankings. In the explanation to the rating system posted earlier, I explained that I needed to convert […]

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I’m going to do this one in separate parts, because I think it’s wise to wait until the draw at the start of next week before diving into the playoff percentages in UEFA. This will also give me a few days to try out a couple of minor adjustments to help tweak things a bit. […]

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I looked at the source data from which the ratings are derived (6,972 international matches from October 12, 2001 to October 11, 2009) and compared the predicted results in those games to the actual results. Now to fully test the system, you’d have to test it against a subset of data not used in the […]

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One game left in the group stages and lots of teams getting in and heading out. Who stepped on their plums, and who rose to the occasion? The updated National Team Rankings can be found here. Full qualification chances can be found here.

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There are several games in Africa on Sunday and one in South America (though that one is meaningless). So I’ll wait for these games to be finished before running an update. Obviously there’s been a lot of qualifications and eliminations, but I’d rather not do three separate updates this week. I’ll do everything I can […]

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So how do I predict the results of a match with these ratings? This is the huge one with two world powers vying for automatic qualification to South Africa next year. How would I sim this game? Well let’s look up what ratings we had at the last pull (they will have changed very little […]

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Just what the hell am I doing back in the vorosmccracken.com command bunker when I’m running all of these ratings and simulations? Now I’m not going to bother pretending I know anything about the effects subtle tactical and formation changes have on the outcome of a match. That’s not what I do. I’m a numbers […]

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