Alright there’s eight teams left and the three biggest pre-tournament favorites remain in the competition. Five of the top six also remain with only England falling out from that group.
EDIT: A Minor Mathematical Error made the original numbers slightly off. These are no corrected. This error affected nothing until the “Knockout Stages post.” That’s what I get for trying to rush things. It has been caught now.
The National Team rankings have been updated again. They are here. Germany’s big result against the English also sees them jump past the English into the number five ranking. Ghana continues to make slow progress up the boards to number 36 and is now the lowest ranked team left in the tournament.
Here is a table with the results of the chances of each team going out at each stage. Like last time, these were not sims but numbers derived directly from the ratings. Brazil’s win chances are now up above 30%, and Spain’s win over Portugal has helped get them into solid second favorite territory again. Should the Dutch somehow overcome what’s looking like an increasingly invincible Brazilian team in the quarterfinals, they would emerge as a very legitimate contender.
Here are the individual predictions for each of the four quarterfinal matches:
Team Goals Advance% Uruguay 1.6 68.72% Ghana 0.9 31.28% Brazil 1.3 59.58% Netherlands 0.9 40.42% Argentina 1.5 52.85% Germany 1.4 47.15% Spain 1.6 75.49% Paraguay 0.6 24.51%
Argentina and Germany is not only the closest matchup, but each team has a high scoring record. That one shapes up to be a lot of fun. The Brazilians look strong; having that kind of advancement chances against an outstanding Dutch team is very, very impressive. They easily dispatched what was not at all a weak Chilean team in the Round of 16.
The chances of either Spain or Brazil winning the tournament now stand at 56.58% Adding the Dutch brings it up around 71%. Adding the Argentines brings it up around 81%.