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Well there’s 63 games played and only one left to go. One team will collect it’s first ever World Cup, sending one of the two football mad countries into delirium and making National Heroes out of 23 players.
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We’re down to the last four teams, and the favorites, Brazil, have been knocked out. The good news for them, I suppose, is that when they got knocked out, they also became the first team to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. Silver linings and such. The National Team Rankings have been recalculated (this…
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Alright there’s eight teams left and the three biggest pre-tournament favorites remain in the competition. Five of the top six also remain with only England falling out from that group. EDIT: A Minor Mathematical Error made the original numbers slightly off. These are no corrected. This error affected nothing until the “Knockout Stages post.”…
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I’m going to do this as quick as possible because of the computer caused delay. Here’s the new ratings including all games as of the end of the Group Stages (though not counting the just completed game between Uruguay and South Korea). The two biggest things to note here is Italy dropping out of…
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Very bad computer meltdown for me, but I’m back up and running now. In about an hour I’ll have the probabilities up for the remainder of the tournament. No more sims, I can solve everything directly from here on out now. I’ll also list the expected scores and percentages for each of the Round…
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For all of you around the world who heard a very loud scream emanating from the general direction of Phoenix, Arizona at around 12:00 PM EST, I apologize. I’m pretty sure it won’t happen again (though it would be nice).
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Every group has now finished the first two rounds of games, and now comes the final game of the group stages, and for half the teams their last game of the tournament. Let’s get all the updated numbers out of the way first. The National Team Rankings have now been updated. An important note…
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1-1 Mexico – South Africa 0-0 France – Uruguay Before getting into the sims, it’s worth pointing out the basics here. Because of the two draws, 5 points is a magic number now. A win and a draw in the next two games for any of the four teams in Group A puts them…
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Alright, tomorrow is the big opening between Mexico and the host country. Here is how the National Team rankings handicap each match in the group stage. The way this is done is by separating each game into 33 equal scoring chances for each team, and their chances for each would obviously be the predicted…