DIPS Base Runs

I’ve come up with a way to estimate David Smyth’s Base Runs using only Defense Independent Pitching Stats.

The best way I can think of is presenting the data in a grid.

Base Runs = (A*(B/(B+C)))+D

Part       BFP       HR       BB       SO      HBP    Hpred
A      -0.0368  -0.1293   1.0438   0.0000   1.1172   1.1610
B       0.0000   1.9318   0.2473  -0.0863   0.4934   1.2179
C       1.0021  -0.9530  -0.9253   0.0000  -1.0319  -0.9181
D       0.0000   1.0000   0.0000   0.0000   0.0000   0.0000

Hpred = Balls in play (BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP) multiplied by the league average of (H-HR)/(BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP)

The Innings Pitched estimate is simply the C number divided by 3.

If you want it in Earned Run scale instead of runs, multiply by 0.914.

One response to “DIPS Base Runs”

  1. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown (Part 2)

    […] You can read the formulae there, but for DIPS purposes we kind of have to make our own. I’ll spare you the linear regression details, the idea was to use a regression to come up with reasonable approximations of the A, B and C factors without using actual hits allowed totals (we already have D which is just home runs). The grid of the coefficients can be found here. […]

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