I’ve come up with a way to estimate David Smyth’s Base Runs using only Defense Independent Pitching Stats.
The best way I can think of is presenting the data in a grid.
Base Runs = (A*(B/(B+C)))+D
Part BFP HR BB SO HBP Hpred A -0.0368 -0.1293 1.0438 0.0000 1.1172 1.1610 B 0.0000 1.9318 0.2473 -0.0863 0.4934 1.2179 C 1.0021 -0.9530 -0.9253 0.0000 -1.0319 -0.9181 D 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Hpred = Balls in play (BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP) multiplied by the league average of (H-HR)/(BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP)
The Innings Pitched estimate is simply the C number divided by 3.
If you want it in Earned Run scale instead of runs, multiply by 0.914.
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