An article in the Chicago Sports Review, (H/T) Baseball Think Factory, got me to thinking about Curt’s Hall of Fame case. Looking at Schilling’s Baseball Reference page, the site lists two direct contemporaries, Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina, as close similarity matches.
Whenever it comes to the Hall of Fame, there’s always two questions: who ought to be in the Hall of Fame and who is actually going to wind up making it. There’s always arguments that can be made in favor of guys like Rick Reuschel or Paul Derringer, but argue all you want, they ain’t getting in. Nevertheless trying to predict how the writers are going to break on an issue is difficult and has been attempted by people smarter than I am.
So let’s stick with an analysis of quality. For the first part, we’re going to take a look at the basic numbers and see if there’s anything that leaps out at you to separate the three. I didn’t take the time to add Schilling and Mussina’s 2007 numbers (but they’ll make little difference) because I am lazy. So this analysis is through the 2006 season.
Mussina is king of the Won/Loss record, Schilling is the strikeout king and Brown is by far the best at preventing home runs. Big deal. Here’s some more interesting data courtesy of the always entertaining hits per balls in play stat:
Pitcher HBIP lgHBIP tmHBIP Schilling 0.292 0.291 0.291 Brown 0.290 0.291 0.288 Mussina 0.288 0.295 0.292
If you never understood DIPS and wanted a quick intro, there it is. Not only are the three pitchers virtually indistinguishable from one another on hits per balls in play, they are virtually indistinguishable from the league averages (column three) and averages of their teams (column four) throughout their careers. If these three are great pitchers (they’re at least close), being good at hits per balls in play has nothing to do with it. Their effectiveness, like those of the vast majority of pitchers, is based on their ability to strikeout hitters, and prevent walks and home runs.
Here are some relevant career numbers to stew on, and I’ll crunch them a bit more seriously in part II.
Pitcher IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA lgERA Schilling 3110 2833 1250 1188 326 688 3015 3.44 4.25 Brown 3256 3079 1357 1185 208 901 2397 3.28 4.30 Mussina 3210 3058 1384 1296 345 719 2572 3.63 4.58
6 responses so far ↓
1 Leucadia Chris // Oct 27, 2007 at 12:35 am
Kevin Brown’s HBIP would likely surprise most baseball people. Due to his filthy sinkerball, he developed a reputation for allowing weak contact to hitters. I recall color men raving how hitters could only touch him for soft grounders and Texas Leaguers because of the movement of his pitches.
What type of pitchers comprise the rare exceptions, the ones that defy the odds by generating their outs with a high HBIP? Do hurlers with longevity that meet this criteria even exist?
2 Voros // Oct 27, 2007 at 10:56 am
Here’s some stuff on types of pitchers who might be able to post a lower HBIP.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/mccracken_2002-01-25_0/
Knuckleballers (and possibly other types of trick delivery guys) are the biggest exceptions and even their advantages aren’t huge. Fly ball guys tend to have lower HBIP rates, but then they have triple and double problems (as well as a future likelihood of more homers all other things equal).
And another thing is that guys consistently on good/bad defensive teams will find their HBIP track with those of their team and be higher/lower than number accordingly. The above mentioned Paul Derringer is a good example.
3 Jesus Melendez // Oct 27, 2007 at 11:45 am
I can’t wait to see part 2. Check out what I had to say about Schill at http://hallofverygood.blogspot.com
4 MB // Oct 27, 2007 at 11:45 am
What’s this about hits per ball in play??
Voros, I’m glad to see you back. I was probably getting into this stuff around the time when you were leaving, so it’s awesome to see you come back with this blog. I’ve read a lot of your stuff from the past, and I’ve enjoyed it : )
Anyway, with that large of a sample, isn’t it safe to say that Mussina is a little better than those other two at preventing balls in play? He was the only one “clearly” better than the league or his team. Or is the margin still really insignificant, overall? Mussina does throw the occasional knuckle curve, which I suppose could have something to do with it.
Out of those 3, it looks like the edge may go to Brown overall, mostly due to preventing homers. Amazingly, with all those innings he pitched, he only gave up more than 20 once.
5 Voros // Oct 27, 2007 at 2:29 pm
On Mussina, you might give him a small advantage, but like I said, this doesn’t count 2007, and Mussina gave up a massive .340 HBIP this year which would do a lot to remove any advantage you’d like to give him.
6 Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown (Part 2) // Oct 27, 2007 at 3:01 pm
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