I’ve come up with a way to estimate David Smyth’s Base Runs using only Defense Independent Pitching Stats.
The best way I can think of is presenting the data in a grid.
Base Runs = (A*(B/(B+C)))+D
Part BFP HR BB SO HBP Hpred A -0.0368 -0.1293 1.0438 0.0000 1.1172 1.1610 B 0.0000 1.9318 0.2473 -0.0863 0.4934 1.2179 C 1.0021 -0.9530 -0.9253 0.0000 -1.0319 -0.9181 D 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Hpred = Balls in play (BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP) multiplied by the league average of HBIP.
The Innings Pitched estimate is simply the C number divided by 3.
If you want it in Earned Run scale instead of runs, multiply by 0.9117. Why to four digits? It’s my site, that’s why.
1 response so far ↓
1 Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown (Part 2) // Oct 27, 2007 at 3:09 pm
[…] You can read the formulae there, but for DIPS purposes we kind of have to make our own. I’ll spare you the linear regression details, the idea was to use a regression to come up with reasonable approximations of the A, B and C factors without using actual hits allowed totals (we already have D which is just home runs). The grid of the coefficients can be found here. […]
Leave a Comment