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DIPS Base Runs

I’ve come up with a way to estimate David Smyth’s Base Runs using only Defense Independent Pitching Stats.

The best way I can think of is presenting the data in a grid.

Base Runs = (A*(B/(B+C)))+D

Part       BFP       HR       BB       SO      HBP    Hpred
A      -0.0368  -0.1293   1.0438   0.0000   1.1172   1.1610
B       0.0000   1.9318   0.2473  -0.0863   0.4934   1.2179
C       1.0021  -0.9530  -0.9253   0.0000  -1.0319  -0.9181
D       0.0000   1.0000   0.0000   0.0000   0.0000   0.0000

Hpred = Balls in play (BFP-HR-BB-SO-HBP) multiplied by the league average of HBIP.

The Innings Pitched estimate is simply the C number divided by 3.

If you want it in Earned Run scale instead of runs, multiply by 0.9117. Why to four digits? It’s my site, that’s why.

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  • 1 Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown (Part 2) // Oct 27, 2007 at 3:09 pm

    […] You can read the formulae there, but for DIPS purposes we kind of have to make our own. I’ll spare you the linear regression details, the idea was to use a regression to come up with reasonable approximations of the A, B and C factors without using actual hits allowed totals (we already have D which is just home runs). The grid of the coefficients can be found here. […]

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