I didn’t get it when the White Sox signed him last year and I still don’t get it now. Darin Erstad signed a one year deal to be Chris Burke’s replacement on the Astros. Okay that’s a little unfair to Chris Burke, Erstad will play in the outfield and be a left handed hitter.
You have to wonder about an organization that has no use for Luke Scott but actually goes out of their way to hire Darin Erstad. According to Baseball Reference, since his big year in 2000, Erstad has posted OPS+ numbers of 82, 86, 72, 97, 87, 57 and 68. As stellar as those numbers are, there appears to be no end to what being a “proven Major League Talent” can bring you.
Granted, Erstad in CF probably beats throwing Reggie Abercrombie out there (there also appears to be no ned to what having “five tools” will do for your professional baseball career), but even Michael Bourn seems to have more in his locker than Darin at this point. We’ll see if Bourn gets the job. And of course any unnecessary at bats Erstad gets in LF, RF or 1B are a disaster since the Astros actually have guys who can hit some there.
As much as some folks like to say that since all the teams now know all this “sabermetric stuff” no teams have any advantages. Jason Lane has a higher career OPS+ than Darin Erstad. Wake me up when some teams actually believe that a guy can hit .210 and out hit a guy hitting .285. That someone is there giving them that information is pretty useless if they ignore it.
12 responses so far ↓
1 Baseball News Aggregator » Darin Erstad Will Make a Million Dollars to Play Baseball This Year // Dec 27, 2007 at 8:38 pm
[…] Original post here […]
2 philly // Dec 28, 2007 at 8:56 am
Couldn’t someone read this post and say “Wake me up when these statnerds actually consider defense (or anything but offense) in their evaluations of a player?”
I don’t disagree with your basic point, but Erstad was – yes, emphasis on was – one of the premier defenders in baseball. To write a post about his signing by a team and not mention defense at all is very retro, late 90s “we can only measure offense and therefore nothing else matters” kind of mis-analysis.
You listed a bunch of OPS+ – offense! offense! offense! – and made a disparaging snarky (and snarky = easy and easy = shallow analysis) comment, but considering Erstad’s defense those first several years with OPS+s in the mid-80s to high 90s are actually pretty solid years.
Your implication that Darren Erstad putting up an 86 OPS+ and playing CF in 2002, is an example of wasting time on a player who is nothing put “proven Major League Talent” is shallow and wrong.
Erstad is/was overrated because of his intangibles, but he was much more than a list of OPS+s.
3 Voros // Dec 28, 2007 at 5:56 pm
That’s right. I personally have never done anything to suggest the value of defense to a baseball club.
In 2004 and 2005 Erstad was a first baseman and if he was the best fielding first baseman ever he’d still have been a lousy player.
As for centerfield, he may have been useful in 2002, and good in 2000 and prior to that, but otherwise you still have to hit better than he has even if you’re the best centerfielder in the league and he’s nowhere near that at the moment.
Chris Singleton was an excellent defensive centerfielder and as good a hitter as Erstad and he’s broadcasting right now. Ditto for Terrence Long. Erstad was 12th out of 14 American League CF in OPS+ in 2002 and was not far from numbers 13 and 14. And this was his post 2000 “good” year.
Erstad’s defense helped him, but not enough then and certainly not close to enough now. I realize this hurts because he’s your son and you love him, but Darin Erstad is not a major league caliber baseball player right now.
4 philly // Dec 28, 2007 at 10:09 pm
My god, you really are thin skinned and entirely too sensitive. Where the hell does that last bs come from?
Just for anybody else reading, I’ll point them to Tango’s analysis in post #318 here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2008_pre_season/#comments
Conclusion:
“His final WAR is somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5. Any way you slice it, this is a good signing (value of 2.6MM to 7.0MM, depending what you think of his fielding). People will *always* focus on his very poor hitting, and dismiss the value he brings with the glove. ”
I guess Voros can make another witty and thoughtful comment about Erstad having 2 daddies whose feelings are hurt or something.
You know, there’s a reason that you attract trolls.
5 Pete Toms // Dec 29, 2007 at 6:58 am
I thought Voros’ wisecrack was funny.
Hopefully more interestingly…how did the Red Sox handle these instances? I.E. What the stat analysis employees ( I’m thinking you, James, Theo etc. ) wanted vs. what the manager & coaching staff wanted. You know, clubhouse / character vs. straight performance.
6 Voros // Dec 29, 2007 at 12:29 pm
“My god, you really are thin skinned and entirely too sensitive. Where the hell does that last bs come from?”
So you can get mouthy with me, but I’m not allowed to respond in kind?
Blow me.
7 philly // Dec 30, 2007 at 3:51 pm
You did not respond “in kind”. I couched all of my disagreements with you in the context of the substantive point that I was making. You simply got personal and insulting outside of the baseball discussion.
There’s a huge difference and if you can’t see it, then it explains why you had difficulties interacting with people outside of your niche.
8 Voros // Dec 30, 2007 at 4:48 pm
You’re still here?
9 philly // Dec 30, 2007 at 9:20 pm
Am I no longer invited to read your public blog because I disagreed with you?
10 Voros // Dec 30, 2007 at 11:20 pm
No I figured you’d be bored with this by now, I am.
11 tangotiger // Dec 31, 2007 at 9:01 am
Getting back to the merits, what do you have as Erstad’s offense? I’ve got him as -2 wins per 162G, relative to the average hitter (position-aside).
If he was an average fielder, at a neutral position, he’s replacement-fodder. But, he’s at least an average fielder at a premium position, and, possible a very good fielder at a premium position.
You can in fact be something like an Everett or Mark Belanger, and be a -3 wins per 162 G on offense, and be the best fielder at a premium position, and still end up being an average overall player.
Therefore, I completely disagree with this statement: “but otherwise you still have to hit better than he has even if you’re the best centerfielder in the league”.
12 Dave // Jan 22, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Sorry to get to this a little late, but don’t those numbers overstate Erstad? [Both Tango’s and Philly’s excerpt of Tango’s.]
Erstad projects 54% playing time? Not in CF – he barely played there half-time last year, and his D might not even be average there. So he’s a guy who plays the corners half the time with an injury history and no bat. And he’s 34. 0.5 WAR might be charitable.
He might still be worth the $1M, depending on how you define replacement value, but wouldn’t the ‘stros be better off with a minimum guy? Then they could re-hire all those scouts.
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