Okay so the scare quotes around ‘prospects’ is kind of rude and unfair. The Twins and Mets have apparently agreed to a trade with the Mets receiving Johan Santana and the Twins receiving four prospects from the Mets. If Santana agrees to a long term extension with the Metropolitans, the Twins will receive center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
I don’t think much of Humber, and Gomez is very ‘toolsy’ which in the circles I tend to travel in is often a bad word. Guerra and Mulvey are at least interesting, with Guerra being very young and a long term prospect. Mulvey had a nice year in Binghamton, though that’s a fairly good environment for pitchers there. Mulvey will live and die by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park.
All and all, it looks like an awfully modest haul for an absolute superstar like Santana. Gomez apparently is being slotted as the Twins starting centerfielder, and that looks awfully optimistic to me. Maybe if he can save a ton of runs with his glove and develop a little more power it won’t be too bad this year, but the point is that so far Gomez has not really shown he’s ready for a full-time major league job. The Twins are not all that far out of contention in the AL Central, but this obviously doesn’t help their chances at all.
Now normally I’d give the Twins a ton of leeway when it comes to their evaluation of young talent, as their record the last decade has been impeccable (including a master stroke in trading for Santana in the first place). But those were Terry Ryan’s Twins, and as much as many of the same people are in place, it’s difficult for me to give full credit for the work done under Ryan to the new guy Bill Smith. I don’t despise this trade from the Twins point of view, but I sure don’t like it a lot. One problem is that the Mets system really doesn’t have anything spectacular in terms of prospects and so the Twins got more or less what there was to get. Compared to what the A’s got for Haren and Swisher, this looks pretty skimpy.
From the Mets point of view, considering that they look pretty incapable of developing a coherent plan for the future other than spend, spend and hope Wright and Reyes carry the lineup for the next decade, this is an excellent deal. If you don’t know how to use a scalpel, power up the chainsaw and carve away. The Mets are doing that by adding Santana to the rotation.
11 responses so far ↓
1 KRANEPOOL // Jan 30, 2008 at 8:38 am
While I see your point about which direction the Mets want to take since I just sent off a check for over a thousand bucks for tickets I’m happy to see my money at work. Wouldn’t be nice if the goverment spent your tax money this way?
You say if you don’t know how to use a scalpel, power up the chain saw and carve away. I say why go to Ikea and build it yourself, when you can hired Norm Abrams to build it for you?
2 Junkmail324 // Jan 30, 2008 at 10:04 am
“One problem is that the Mets system really doesn’t have anything spectacular in terms of prospects and so the Twins got more or less what there was to get.”
Aren’t Fernando Martinez and Mike Pelfrey their top 2 prospects? I don’t see how this trade can be seen as anything other than a total failure by the Twins. How did they not get at least one of them?
3 Voros // Jan 30, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I think the barren state of the Mets farm system is probably one of the reasons they couldn’t get Martinez. Without him, the Mets have nothing.
As for Pelfrey, my gut feeling is that the Twins simply preferred the pitchers (Guerra and Mulvey) they got. The Twins have got pretty good pitching depth in or near the majors, and I’m not sure Pelfrey is much of an upgrade over guys like Slowey.
That said I don’t like the trade either. There’s 28 other teams out there and there had to be a better package available than this somewhere.
4 StoneyLove // Jan 30, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I just sent my $1000 check in too, but for the twins. And they just got a taxpayer funded stadium. I’m sick of this shit. And, honestly, this is exactly why MLB will continue to battle the NBA to see who can be second. Too many markets get shafted in MLB. This is like trading Tom Brady. Actually, fuck that, its like not resigning Tom Brady.
Yes, Pohlad could afford to sign Johan. But until someone shows me that the Twins spend less to significantly less in payroll as a percentage of income than other teams then keep your “Pohlad is the richest…” argument to yourself. I really would love to know payroll vs. income figures. Honest.
5 Pete Toms // Jan 30, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Opinion is overwhelming that Smith screwed it up. I wonder how many teams were legitimate contenders….Santana had / has vetoe and I assume he would / will use it unless he gets $150 million or so ( so says Olney ). Realistically how many teams would be / are willing to pony up that kind of dough?
6 Josh // Jan 30, 2008 at 7:15 pm
I live in Seattle (where we are about to give up the farm for Bedard) and I have heard Santana veto’d any trade to us…. otherwise I am sure Adam Jones plus Tillman and other farther away prospects easily outweighs the Mets deal..
7 Voros // Jan 30, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Stoney, who are you talking to about Pohlad? I’ve criticized Pohlad before, but that was specifically on the subject of stadium funding, not really payroll.
And there are business considerations in terms of how the league structures payroll. Yes Pohlad is in a less advantageous position than say the Mets, but then that was reflected in the fairly modest amount he purchased the team for in the first place.
I have more of a complaint directed at the Royals as their payroll as a percentage of revenues has clearly plummeted since the death of Kauffman. League wide payroll as a percentage of revenues is down substantially.
8 Voros // Jan 30, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Using 2006 payroll numbers from Baseball Reference and 2006 revenues from Forbes, the Twins spent 48% of their revenues on player payroll compared to 45% for the league average. The Yankees spent 64%.
9 Pete Toms // Jan 31, 2008 at 6:19 am
Vince Gennaro has done some work on % of revenues spent on payroll. I recall reading that he pointed out how fortunate the Rockies were last season in that they were near the bottom in this category but as we all know…Don’t remember where I read it though…Having said that, I think Zimbalist finds his work and JC Bradbury’s kinda sloppy, according to the book reviews he wrote for Biz of Baseball not long ago.
10 Everything you Ever Wanted to Know about the Johan Santana Trade | Brock for Broglio // Jan 31, 2008 at 8:19 am
[…] Voros McCracken […]
11 John Peterson // Feb 9, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Voros, you should check out my blog (Blastings! Thrilledge; click on my name) for a similar take on the deal.
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