Road to South Africa 3

A lot more matches were played this week and some teams are moving up and down from the qualification chances posted last time. I was amazed after running the sims that no one hit the 10,000 out of 10,000 mark (though I think if I ran it again one might). So at the moment South Africa remains the only country with “IN” status. A couple are so close that it’s close to a formality (Australia could have officially clinched it had other results gone their way). Some high-powered teams are in some high-powered trouble now.

The full qualification chances for every team can be found here.

The National Team Ratings can be found here.

Now that’s Close

Spain = 99.99%; Australia 99.98%; Japan = 99.94%; Netherlands = 99.89%; Brazil = 99.87%. That’s right, the Spanish team missed once out of 10,000 sims. The Bosnians actually won that group a handful of times, but in all of those cases except one, the Spanish won the second place playoff. Australia and Japan been on the brink for a while now, and Brazil haven’t been far away. The Dutch were a little further away, but after taking care of business against the Scots and the Macedonians, a repeat of 2002 (when the Dutch failed to qualify) appears to be extremely unlikely. All these teams should clear their schedules for summer 2010.

Going Up

Slovakia = 69.14%; Saudi Arabia = 66.16%; Serbia = 71.04%; Gabon 26.25%; Tunisia = 51.97%. These are the five teams whose number of qualifications went up the most since last time. After a big friendly loss to England, Slovakia stunned the Czechs in Prague, with Erik Jendrisek’s goal in the 82nd minute turning the entire group on its head. The Saudis came from behind in both of their wins, which included an absolutely massive win in Tehran against the Iranians. The Serbian win in Romania coupled with other good results for them, has made them heavy favorites for first or second in that group (the same can be said for France). Over to Africa, a stunning 2-1 upset over Morocco in Casablanca has Gabon off to a surprisingly good start, with Cameroon’s loss in Togo helping as well. They’re still a bit of longshots from here, but are in the game now. Wins on the road in Africa are never easy, and Tunisia’s 2-1 win over Kenya in Kenya sees them top of their group with Nigeria’s scoreless draw on the road in Mozambique. The first showdown between Tunisia and Nigeria is on June 20.

Disaster

Iran = 44.78%; Czech Republic = 37.08%; Romania = 0.63%; Morocco = 24.20%; Turkey = 15.47%. As you can see, the teams whose number of qualifications dropped the most have a lot to do with the above results. The home losses by Iran and the Czechs were truly disastrous and now they both may be forced to win playoffs to make it in. Romania took a blowtorch to whatever chances they had with losses in two games they needed to win, they’re almost certainly done. Morocco was going to have trouble with Cameroon to begin with, spotting Gabon three points with a home loss makes things that much more difficult. Spain is a tough team, no doubt, but Turkey losing both games to the Spanish and the Bosnian’s sweep of Belgium puts them in pretty bad shape even for a playoff.

Portuguese Suicide Watch

Portugal = 15.51%. It just keeps getting worse for Portugal. Their chances were cut in half, as the scoreless draw at home to Sweden just isn’t good enough at this point. It may seem like it’s still early, but there are quality teams in that group and Portugal is way behind. They are in some pretty big trouble now, and even if they start playing better, they may still need outside help now.

Local News

USA = 96.86%; Mexico = 93.99%; Costa Rica = 71.59%; Honduras = 66.42%; Trinidad and Tobago = 2.20%; El Salvador = 1.13%. While the USA and Mexico both hurt themselves slightly with not so great road results, their home wins keep them well positioned to qualify. Honduras did themselves a favor with the home win against Mexico, though they’d be even better off if they could have held the late lead against T&T. Costa Rica joins the top 4, and to have any shot the bottom two need to start winning instead of merely playing well (which they have done at times). Mexico probably wants to pick up a road win at some point to give them a little margin of error at home.

And some lovely parting gifts

Albania, United Arab Emirates, Peru, Macedonia, Moldova, Georgia, Iceland= 0.00%. All of the above teams went from from having some small chance last time to going 0 for 10,000 this time. Zombie Iceland returned from the dead last time, but I think are probably killed off for good now. The UAE lost their last best hope after blowing a late lead against the Saudis. There are some decent sides among the rest, but nobody great and things just didn’t go their way. Peru needs to get its house in order. They should be better than this.

Off Topic

Not related to World Cup qualifying, But a big congratulations go out to the Guam National Football Team who won their very first game against a full FIFA member by defeating Mongolia 1-0 in an East Asian Cup preliminary round. They also drew 2-2 with Macau in that round. I mention this simply because for years I couldn’t decide who was the worst of the full teams: American Samoa or Guam. Both were renown for getting 15+ goals dropped on them with regularity. With these results, Guam establishes that it almost certainly is not them, at least not anymore. Sincerely, a lot of unknown people probably did a lot of unknown work to try and help that team improve and they should be very, very proud of the accomplishment.

The next round of qualifiers are in June, and I’m certain some teams will reach that 100% mark then.