This weekend qualifiers are over, so let’s see how everyone is faring going into the midweek matches.
The full qualification chances for every team can be found here.
The National Team Ratings can be found here.
IN
Japan, Australia, Korea Republic, Netherlands, Brazil = 100.00%. Four of these five teams have also officially qualified. The one who has not, Brazil, qualified in all 10,000 sims anyway, indicating that the massive strength of their team plus everything they’ve already done means they’re going to South Africa next summer. And what would the World Cup be without Brazil? Well, easier to win, for starters.
Just a little bit more
Spain = 99.96%; England = 99.77%. England continues to put distance between themselves and their pursuers and it looks to me like the English can prepare to head down to South Africa next summer. The Spanish group did not play this weekend.
Going Up
Costa Rica = 94.72%; Chile = 94.61%; Ghana = 94.13%; Gabon = 50.02%; Algeria = 36.01%. These are the five teams whose qualification chances went up the most. Things absolutely could not have gone better for the Ticos as they suddenly took the pole position in CONCACAF qualifying. They can still mess it up, but it looks awfully good right now. Chile’s 2-0 win in Paraguay is the team’s biggest win in a long time, as they jump into an excellent position in CONMEBOL. Ghana received a fairly good draw and have so far taken full advanatage taking full points from their first two. In Africa, the final round is only six games, so things progress quickly. Gabon’s surprising start continues as they now sit five points clear of group favorites Cameroon and Morocco. They’ve still got a lot to do, but you have to think they’re ecstatic with how things have developed so far. Finally Algeria’s big win at home over Egypt turns Group 3 into a three way slugfest between Egypt, Zambia and themselves.
Can you believe Mexico isn’t in this list
Mali = 3.40%; Sweden = 16.17%; Cameroon = 19.78%; Egypt = 29.19%; Uruguay = 49.14%. These teams saw their chances drop the most. Losing on the road to Ghana puts Mali in a spot that’s going to be very difficult to get out of. Sweden may very well have handed Denmark their group, and put themselves in a spot they probably don’t want to be in. Their poor FIFA ranking continues to be a big concern for playoff seeding. Cameroon’s home draw against Morocco gives Gabon more hope and also, of course, gives Morocco a little life as well. Egypt’s 3-1 road loss to Algeria loses them their group favorite spot. And the Chile result combined with the home beatdown from Brazil means Uruguay probably wants to consider sending some scouts up North; their best shot now looks like a playoff.
Portugal Update
Portugal = 29.98%. As it turns out, Sweden’s home loss to Denmark actually helps Portugal significantly. Yes it does put Denmark in the catbird’s seat for winning the group, but Portugal had thrown away most of their chances of winning the group already. Sweden now is easier to beat, and they still have both their games remaining against Hungary. The road game against Albania was a tricky one, but they got the road win they desperately needed. It still ain’t great, but a few rays of sunshine are starting to peek through the clouds.
Local News
USA = 96.85%; Costa Rica = 94.72%; Mexico = 83.68%; Honduras = 59.53%; El Salvador = 3.40%; Trinidad and Tobago =0.54%. After all that noise from the USA’s two games, their qualification chances are right back where they started from. They saved themselves needless aggravation with the comeback win in my hometown over Honduras. Costa Rica we mentioned. Mexico still looks relatively well placed to qualify, but their chances have pretty much steadily dropped each time. They need to right the ship and Azteca needs to be the impenetrable fortress it usually is. They do not want to have to win a playoff. If Honduras had somehow held their early lead against the USA, the whole group would have been up for grabs. El Salvador certainly should be proud of their efforts so far, but their remaining schedule just isn’t very favorable. They’re going to need a road upset and I don’t mean over T&T. This next game on the road in Honduras is almost a must win or at least a must draw. T&T is about to face a very unhappy Mexican team in Azteca, and T&T likely needs at least a point to keep its very dim hopes alive. So they’re just about done.
Zombie Island
Iceland = 0.02%.
It was an honor just to have participated
Malawi, Cyprus = 0.00%. 0 for 10,000 isn’t just Tony Pena Jr’s career batting line, it’s also what these two teams did in the 10,000 sims. A good rule of thumb for qualification is not to lose at home against Burkina Faso. Cyprus actually did manage to take 2nd place seven times, but lost two playoffs and were the worst 2nd place finisher the other five times.
Data Dump
And here’s a the data broken down by group, with additional data about the playoff results.
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 99.92% Paraguay 93.79% Chile 90.12% Argentina 89.51% Uruguay 20.18% Ecuador 3.52% Colombia 1.74% Venezuela 1.18% Bolivia 0.04% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent USA 93.87% Costa Rica 91.92% Mexico 68.36% Honduras 43.35% El Salvador 2.20% Trinidad and Tobago 0.30% CAF - Group1 Percent Gabon 50.02% Morocco 24.10% Cameroon 19.78% Togo 6.10% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 53.79% Nigeria 45.66% Mozambique 0.34% Kenya 0.21% CAF - Group 3 Percent Algeria 36.01% Zambia 32.83% Egypt 29.19% Rwanda 1.97% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 94.13% Mali 3.40% Benin 2.30% Sudan 0.17% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 94.24% Burkina Faso 5.40% Guinea 0.36% Malawi 0.00% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 100.00% Japan 100.00% Bahrain 0.00% Qatar 0.00% Uzbekistan 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea Republic 100.00% Saudi Arabia 55.55% Korea DPR 34.59% Iran 9.86% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 93.64% Portugal 3.25% Sweden 1.75% Hungary 1.36% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Greece 57.67% Switzerland 38.67% Israel 3.63% Latvia 0.03% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 64.20% Czech Republic 17.13% Poland 13.22% Northern Ireland 2.81% Slovenia 2.64% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 88.47% Russia 10.97% Finland 0.56% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% Wales 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 99.80% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.20% Armenia 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Turkey 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 99.42% Croatia 0.31% Ukraine 0.25% Belarus 0.02% Andorra 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent Serbia 51.80% France 48.01% Romania 0.17% Austria 0.01% Lithuania 0.01% Faroe Islands 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 90.39% Ireland Republic 8.44% Bulgaria 1.17% Cyprus 0.00% Georgia 0.00% Montenegro 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 100.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% Norway 0.00% Scotland 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent Russia 45.64% France 37.45% Portugal 26.73% Ireland Republic 26.68% Ukraine 25.56% Croatia 25.23% Switzerland 22.41% Serbia 22.34% Greece 21.47% Czech Republic 18.60% Turkey 18.19% Sweden 14.42% Bosnia-Herzegovina 13.12% Scotland 10.31% Poland 9.29% Norway 8.81% Germany 8.69% Bulgaria 7.21% Israel 6.66% Italy 6.25% Slovakia 5.58% Hungary 4.79% Finland 3.54% Denmark 3.27% Slovenia 1.90% Belarus 1.67% Northern Ireland 1.66% Romania 1.23% England 0.35% Macedonia FYR 0.28% Spain 0.16% Lithuania 0.14% Belgium 0.13% Wales 0.10% Montenegro 0.07% Austria 0.04% Iceland 0.02% Latvia 0.01% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Iran 24.05% Bahrain 23.07% New Zealand 20.32% Saudi Arabia 14.43% Korea DPR 12.95% Uzbekistan 5.06% Qatar 0.12% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Uruguay 28.96% Honduras 16.18% Mexico 15.32% Argentina 7.41% Ecuador 7.27% Colombia 6.52% Chile 4.49% Paraguay 3.53% USA 2.98% Venezuela 2.98% Costa Rica 2.80% El Salvador 1.20% Trinidad and Tobago 0.24% Brazil 0.08% Bolivia 0.04% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 45.16% Ireland Republic 31.87% Russia 29.28% Ukraine 27.88% Serbia 24.06% Scotland 21.99% Switzerland 20.59% Greece 15.25% Hungary 14.87% Turkey 14.86% Norway 13.75% Poland 13.45% Slovakia 12.86% Israel 12.08% Portugal 11.66% Croatia 11.65% France 11.57% Sweden 10.49% Finland 9.45% Bulgaria 9.00% Czech Republic 8.55% Slovenia 6.90% Belarus 5.77% Northern Ireland 5.77% Germany 2.45% Italy 2.09% Denmark 1.72% Macedonia FYR 1.62% Romania 1.07% Montenegro 0.58% Belgium 0.32% Wales 0.30% Austria 0.28% Lithuania 0.28% England 0.17% Latvia 0.16% Iceland 0.14% Spain 0.04% Cyprus 0.02% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Bahrain 51.96% Korea DPR 20.49% Uzbekistan 10.07% Saudi Arabia 8.70% Iran 8.21% Qatar 0.57% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 79.68% Bahrain 7.52% Korea DPR 6.05% Saudi Arabia 2.73% Iran 2.39% Uzbekistan 1.53% Qatar 0.10% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Honduras 29.65% Uruguay 13.88% Mexico 12.35% El Salvador 9.38% Ecuador 7.32% Costa Rica 5.00% Colombia 4.98% Venezuela 4.69% Chile 3.91% USA 2.96% Paraguay 1.98% Trinidad and Tobago 1.94% Argentina 1.85% Bolivia 0.11% Worst 2nd Place UEFA Percent Scotland 22.24% Ireland Republic 14.22% Norway 14.20% Macedonia FYR 4.99% Portugal 4.99% Poland 4.85% Czech Republic 4.83% Hungary 4.39% Turkey 4.39% Bosnia-Herzegovina 3.05% Sweden 2.58% Slovakia 2.10% Northern Ireland 1.91% Slovenia 1.75% Iceland 1.65% Bulgaria 1.59% France 0.79% Switzerland 0.69% Croatia 0.68% Ukraine 0.56% Belgium 0.55% Romania 0.54% Belarus 0.48% Israel 0.36% Russia 0.36% Greece 0.23% Montenegro 0.22% Italy 0.15% Finland 0.13% Serbia 0.12% Denmark 0.09% Latvia 0.09% Lithuania 0.08% Cyprus 0.05% Wales 0.05% Estonia 0.03% Austria 0.01% Germany 0.01%
Will update all of this later in the week.
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