I have been battling the sort of computer problems no one who does what I do should ever have to face, and it appears I may very well have stemmed the tide in my favor for the moment. I’m going to sleep in about a half an hour…
…if I wake up tomorrow, power up my machine and it boots to where it’s supposed to instead of the ever dreaded BSOD, I will then immediately do the numbers on the upcoming Germany/Russia WC Qualifying mega-game that I had been planning for weeks. You’ll get sort of an idea how the ratings are used to predict the outcome of a match, and see what the limitations are and maybe a few ideas for future improvement (never said I had this perfectly figured out).
My hope is that you’ll not only find the matchup analysis between the Germans and Russians interesting, but also be able to provide some helpful feedback to me as to areas where I can improve the model (both on the ratings and simulation side of things).
Of course if “Windows encounters a fatal error…” well then who knows what happens tomorrow. The best I can promise then is that my reaction will stay out of the National and World newscasts (I can’t promise anything on the local news front though).
UPDATE: Well, still functioning for now. Working on the Germany/Russia game now.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Hara // Oct 4, 2009 at 11:48 pm
Good luck!
This Mega-game isn’t all that important, as the loser has the playoffs as a safety net.
Speaking of the playoffs, I hope you’ll have some kind of a preview for us!
2 Mitz // Oct 5, 2009 at 3:49 am
Looking forward to the analysis very much, both with respect to the match itself and the insight into your methodology.
As to the importance of the game, then in a way that depends on the result. If Germany win then it won’t cause many ripples. But if Russia win and there is the very real possibility of Germany not making it to the finals for the first time since 1950 (in a playoff, anything can happen) – well, that would be something to sit up and take notice of.
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