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There are several games in Africa on Sunday and one in South America (though that one is meaningless). So I’ll wait for these games to be finished before running an update. Obviously there’s been a lot of qualifications and eliminations, but I’d rather not do three separate updates this week.
I’ll do everything I can to get one up by Sunday Night (Phoenix, Arizona time).
Also ALVARO WINS!
In anticipation of Voros’ scientific predictions, I’m going to go ahead and post mine, which are based on instinct and a degree of football knowledge. I’ll be interested to see how much we agree!
Africa:
The current group leaders are going to go through, ie Cameroon, Tunisia and Algeria. In group A Cameroon seem to have completely recovered their composure, and I would now expect them to win their last game. Tunisia are one of the best teams in the continent and are not going to make any mistakes against Mozambique – so bad luck Nigeria. Algeria can lose by a goal to Egypt and still go through, but I don’t think it will be as close as that – I reckon the game will finish as a draw.
Europe:
Group 1 – OK, I was wrong: I fancied Sweden’s chances before Saturday’s games. Portugal will beat Malta, probably by 6 or more, even without Ronaldo, and so will be in the playoffs.
Group 2 – Switzerland will get the point they need at home to Israel and qualify direct. Greece will make the playoffs by comfortably beating Luxembourg.
Group 3 – Slovenia will beat San Marino, and I think the pressure will finally get to Slovakia who will only draw in Poland. So, Slovenia to qualify and Slovakia for the playoffs.
Group 6 – no great surprise that Ukraine were able to pull off the win against England, and they will thump Andorra to make the playoffs. Bad luck Croatia.
Playoff lineup:
Assuming Edgar’s projected FIFA rankings are more-or-less corect, the seeds will be Russia, France, Portugal and Greece. The other four will be Ireland, Slovakia, Ukraine and Bosnia. Sorry Norway – little chance before the weekend has turned into no chance at all now: if Voros gives anything other than a 100% chance of Norway finishing as worst runner up I will be flabberghasted, as that will mean at least one of the sims saying that Malta will draw or better with Portugal!
I’m not going to bother predicting playoff results without knowing who will play who, but I will say that at least one seed will be beaten.
Concacaf:
I think Honduras have a better chance against El Salvador than Costa Rica have against USA. Honduras to win and qualify, Costa Rica to draw and go to the playoff.
South America:
Here’s where I’m going to go out on a limb a little. Not withstanding Argentina’s dramatic late winner which kept them in it, I see even more big black clouds in front of them. Chile have qualified and this gives Ecuador a fantastic chance. Uruguay are strong at home. Argentina are under stupendous pressure. I predict that Uruguay will win and qualify direct, and that Ecuador will beat Chile to make the playoff. Sorry Diego.
Asia/Oceania:
They’ve done it before against Saudi Arabia, and I think they will do it again: Bahrain to get a score draw in New Zealand and go through on away goals.
So, how’d I do?
D’uh – spot the deliberate mistake time.
Norway need Portugal to lose to Malta by at least 4 goals, at the same time as Sweden only get a draw with Albania.
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