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There are still 100 teams participating in World Cup qualifying, 31 one of which will join the hosts for the big show in South Africa in 2010. But who really still has a shot to go? And who really should already be making their hotel reservations? Which of the big guns are in trouble? Which of the minnows still have a chance?

When answering those sorts of questions, there’s three aspects to it: what results have already occurred, how good are the remaining teams relative to one another, and what are the remaining schedules and qualification criteria for the various teams. For a while now I’ve been doing rankings for the International Soccer teams based entirely on their results. They work well but aren’t perfect (it’s impossible to be). Using these rankings, I could then simulate the remaining games a bunch of times and keep track of who qualified each time.

So that’s what I did, 10,000 simulations to be exact. The full list of every team is here, as I don’t want to clutter this post with a long list of teams. But here’s some info:

In!!

South Africa = 100%. The hosts are still the only team to make it all 10,000 times, though there are a few who missed only a handful of times.

The Finish Line is in Sight

Brazil = 99.88%, Australia = 99.85%, Paraguay = 99.44%. The World Cup wouldn’t be the World Cup without Brazil and there’s little worry this time. Australia seems to have made a wise choice in escaping Oceania into Asia, they are maybe only one win away from essentially sealing it. Paraguay is very interesting in that they aren’t supposed to be this close by now, but having racked up 23 points in 10 games, the collapse from here would be unprecedented. They only missed 56 times in 10,000 attempts.

Local News

Mexico = 97.13%, USA = 95.24%, Honduras = 71.28%, Costa Rica = 59.61%, Trinidad and Tobago = 5.54%, El Salvador = 2.81%. CONCACAF’s final round doesn’t start until February, so these numbers are based entirely on the expected strengths of the teams still in. El Salvador and T&T are in a tough spot as the other four teams are superior and there are only 3 and a half slots. Honduras is ranked above Costa Rica which is probably surprising to some. CONCACAF’s 4th place team won the playoff with South America 31.61% of the time.

Don’t Panic…Yet

Argentina = 98.34%, Iran = 86.04%, France = 72.86%. Argentina is tied with Chile for third in South America and within striking distance of three others. They certainly would like to be doing better, but that’s likely good enough if the results in the future are close to expectations. Iran too is being threatened by North Korea and Saudi Arabia, but the traditional Asian powers should also either qualify directly or navigate through the maze of playoffs against weaker teams. France of course has had a very poor start to things and is a full 5 points back of 2nd place in their group. But they have a game in hand and an easier remaining schedule than the teams ahead of them, and the only team in their group close to them in talent (Romania) has had an even worse start. They’ve got time to rally and even win the group, or at least win the playoff.

Okay, panic

Portugal = 30.38%, Colombia = 28.28%, Romania = 24.14%. The Portguese have thrown away their margin for error and now need to kick it into gear, or they have BIG problems. They’re two points back of Denmark and the Danes have a game in hand and beat Portugal in Portugal. Portugal also has Sweden to contend with, who has a much better remaining schedule. Portugal may have to hope to win a playoff. Colombia hasn’t made the World Cup since 1998 despite being a very good team, and they’ve once again made a mess of qualification. Their remaining schedule is favorable, but being in 7th with over half of qualifying gone is not good. Romania has really had some tough draws out of Europe the last decade but this one wasn’t so bad. But injuries and a devastating home loss to Lithuania has once again put them in bad shape. They can escape, but the next screw up could be fatal.

False Hope

Slovakia = 22.36%, Lithuania = 7.52%, Ecuador = 11.98%. Slovakia sits atop Group 3 through four of the group’s 10 games. However the Czechs play four of the remaining six at home and have two remaining with the Slovaks. Only two points back, they should still be favorites to win a relatively weak group. Even should Slovakia hold off Poland and Slovenia, they’d still need to win a playoff over what would likely be a more talented team. Lithuania’s 3-0 road win over a depleted Romanian team may be the best result in their history. But even though they’re tied with Serbia for first in the group, there’s still an awful lot of work to be done and they still shouldn’t be favored to do it. Ecuador has qualified for the last two World Cups, and made it out of the group stage in the last one. But they may be in some big trouble now. They currently sit in 6th and have remaining home games against Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The needed points don’t seem to be out there, but a big win against a Brazil or Argentina would help.

And Some Lovely Parting Gifts

Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino = 0.00%. None of those teams qualified in any of the 10,000 sims. The biggest name there is probably Iceland who had some moments a few years back but all of those teams are just playing out the string now. Moldova did qualify once in the 10,000 sims! In CONCACAF and Africa (the two regions who haven’t started their final round yet), Malawi was the longest shot at 0.46%. Sudan = 2.11%, Mozambique = 2.46%, Burkina Faso = 2.8% and El Salvador = 2.81% are the other countries whose qualification chances are close to over before they really get started, but they all at least have puncher’s chance I guess.

As we get closer, I’ll update the sims with more actual results and updated ratings. I’m thinking after the next set of results there will be at least one or two teams who hit the 100% mark.