Thanks for everyone’s patience. My computer difficulties continue to plague me, but I managed to get all my files onto another machine and set everything up. So 10,000 sims for all games played through August 31, 2009.
I’m going to try and get the next update done immediately after the next set of qualifiers, but I simply can’t guarantee that when I’m working on borrowed equipment. They will get up though, and almost certainly quicker than these got done.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
Going Up
Croatia = 42.14%; Honduras 76.71%; Norway = 13.63%; Mexico = 88.49%. Croatia’s road win in Belarus was extremely big for them as Belarus are no slouches (ranked 58th by my system) and can be very tough at home. Honduras and Mexico obviously did what they needed to do by holding serve at home against the other two teams in the top 4 in CONCACAF qualifying. Norway’s convincing 4-0 win over a 10 man Scotland side gets them at least with a puncher’s chance and edges them ahead of the Scots. They have a bunch of work still left to do to just make the playoffs, including a very real possibility of being the worst placed 2nd place team.
Going Down
Costa Rica = 85.06%; Scotland = 4.06%; USA = 91.92%; Ukraine = 16.67%. The Ticos may very well have had one foot in the door with any kind of result down in Honduras, but instead were convincingly beaten. That result combined with Mexico’s 2nd half winner against the USA has once again tightened up the top 4 in CONCACAF. The big drop for the USA also has a little to do with not a great Gold Cup, which may be a little unfair (since they sent the 2nd and 3rd string) but didn’t make that much of a difference really. Ukraine drops through no fault of their own, but because at this point good news for Croatia is bad news for them.
2nd Prize is You’re Fired
The point totals for the worst 2nd place team in UEFA are listed below. Remember that these totals are points minus points gained against the last place team in the group with the exception of Group 9. Also keep in mind that as often as not, the worst 2nd place team will come up on the short end of a tiebreaker.
7 points = 0.08%
8 points = 1.02%
9 points = 8.97%
10 points = 41.08%
11 points = 34.10%
12 points = 14.10%
13 points = 0.65%
Data Dump
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 100.00% Chile 97.48% Paraguay 94.51% Argentina 77.94% Uruguay 17.66% Ecuador 9.88% Colombia 2.29% Venezuela 0.24% Bolivia 0.00% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent USA 84.41% Costa Rica 77.68% Mexico 74.71% Honduras 62.81% Trinidad and Tobago 0.24% El Salvador 0.15% CAF - Group1 Percent Gabon 57.90% Cameroon 23.99% Morocco 9.75% Togo 8.36% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 51.40% Nigeria 47.83% Kenya 0.67% Mozambique 0.10% CAF - Group 3 Percent Algeria 69.30% Egypt 25.06% Zambia 5.46% Rwanda 0.18% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 97.64% Mali 2.14% Benin 0.22% Sudan 0.00% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 99.26% Burkina Faso 0.59% Guinea 0.15% Malawi 0.00% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 100.00% Japan 100.00% Bahrain 0.00% Uzbekistan 0.00% Qatar 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea Republic 100.00% Korea DPR 100.00% Saudi Arabia 0.00% Iran 0.00% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 93.00% Portugal 3.48% Sweden 2.10% Hungary 1.42% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Greece 55.50% Switzerland 40.59% Israel 3.87% Latvia 0.04% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 62.75% Czech Republic 17.81% Poland 12.66% Slovenia 3.73% Northern Ireland 3.05% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 81.51% Russia 18.49% Finland 0.00% Wales 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 99.85% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.15% Turkey 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Armenia 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 99.58% Croatia 0.32% Ukraine 0.10% Belarus 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% Andorra 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent Serbia 57.99% France 41.98% Romania 0.03% Lithuania 0.00% Austria 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 90.13% Ireland Republic 8.53% Bulgaria 1.33% Montenegro 0.01% Cyprus 0.00% Georgia 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 100.00% Norway 0.00% Scotland 0.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent Russia 50.24% Croatia 41.82% France 40.62% Serbia 23.73% Portugal 23.36% Greece 21.98% Switzerland 21.66% Ireland Republic 21.08% Turkey 16.80% Ukraine 16.57% Czech Republic 16.13% Germany 14.27% Norway 13.63% Sweden 12.68% Bosnia-Herzegovina 11.98% Poland 9.82% Bulgaria 7.01% Israel 6.91% Italy 5.75% Slovakia 5.06% Hungary 4.89% Scotland 4.06% Denmark 3.31% Slovenia 2.18% Northern Ireland 1.60% Romania 0.88% Macedonia FYR 0.70% Belarus 0.30% England 0.30% Finland 0.15% Montenegro 0.15% Spain 0.13% Belgium 0.11% Lithuania 0.05% Latvia 0.05% Austria 0.04% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Saudi Arabia 55.15% Bahrain 26.92% New Zealand 17.93% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Uruguay 19.01% Honduras 13.90% Mexico 13.78% Ecuador 13.59% Argentina 13.45% USA 7.51% Costa Rica 7.38% Colombia 6.41% Paraguay 2.60% Chile 1.19% Venezuela 0.94% El Salvador 0.16% Trinidad and Tobago 0.08% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 44.93% Ireland Republic 35.74% Russia 30.84% Croatia 20.73% Switzerland 19.97% Norway 19.29% Turkey 18.62% Ukraine 18.58% Serbia 17.41% Greece 16.21% Hungary 15.45% France 14.70% Poland 13.99% Portugal 13.76% Slovakia 13.38% Sweden 12.84% Israel 11.64% Bulgaria 11.29% Czech Republic 10.83% Scotland 9.75% Slovenia 7.90% Northern Ireland 6.09% Germany 4.18% Macedonia FYR 3.38% Italy 2.58% Denmark 2.20% Romania 1.08% Belarus 0.85% Montenegro 0.53% Belgium 0.29% Finland 0.28% Latvia 0.23% Austria 0.20% Lithuania 0.12% England 0.07% Cyprus 0.03% Wales 0.02% Spain 0.02% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Bahrain 65.02% Saudi Arabia 34.98% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 82.07% Saudi Arabia 9.87% Bahrain 8.06% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Honduras 22.22% Ecuador 15.71% Costa Rica 14.47% Uruguay 12.44% Mexico 10.69% USA 7.74% Colombia 5.67% Argentina 4.16% Paraguay 1.95% Venezuela 1.77% Chile 1.10% El Salvador 1.10% Trinidad and Tobago 0.97% Bolivia 0.01% Worst 2nd Place UEFA Percent Norway 18.87% Scotland 18.10% Ireland Republic 13.53% Macedonia FYR 12.22% Portugal 5.35% Czech Republic 4.16% Turkey 4.07% Poland 3.71% Hungary 3.51% Sweden 2.60% Bosnia-Herzegovina 2.50% Slovakia 2.01% Slovenia 1.95% Bulgaria 1.65% Northern Ireland 1.19% France 0.68% Switzerland 0.61% Belgium 0.55% Montenegro 0.53% Croatia 0.48% Israel 0.39% Greece 0.32% Romania 0.27% Ukraine 0.24% Serbia 0.16% Italy 0.11% Belarus 0.06% Denmark 0.05% Lithuania 0.05% Latvia 0.03% Cyprus 0.02% Russia 0.02% Austria 0.01%
9 responses so far ↓
1 Haris // Sep 3, 2009 at 4:03 am
Hi Voros.
Love your work.
Can you give me the odds of Bosnia and Turkez finishing in second place in group 5?
Thanks.
2 simon // Sep 3, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Harris, you can figure that out yourself by adding the playoff, playoff loss and worst-2nd place odds for each team, about 60% in Bosnia’s case
3 Cramer // Sep 5, 2009 at 12:35 pm
fantastic to have you back. Are you making an update after tonights matches or do you wait for the matches being played Wednesday?
4 Haris // Sep 5, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Right.
Thanks.
Should be more than 60% after today’s win 😀
5 Vimes // Sep 5, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Thanks for these updates
Is it possible to post the points of the 8th-best runners-up? As that’s going to be what teams have to achieve, rather than just beating the ninth-place…
6 Voros // Sep 5, 2009 at 8:37 pm
I’m going to try and get an update done before Wednesday’s games. Some important results happened today.
7 Voros // Sep 5, 2009 at 9:37 pm
I should note that there’s several qualifiers in Africa tomorrow, so don’t expect an update until tomorrow night.
8 Cramer // Sep 6, 2009 at 12:44 am
Okay. Sounds good. Brazil have mathematicaly secured the place now, and kicked Argentina into fuhrter troubles.
9 Kevin Breslin // Sep 16, 2009 at 5:13 pm
When’s the updated qualification chances being made? I’d love to see what chance Norway have!
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