One of the best parts about making mistakes is it gives you opportunities for explanations. I’ve re-run the 10,000 simulations correcting the coding mistake which meant Scotland was always the 2nd place team in Group 9 in UEFA. So many of the changes in results are due to this adjustment.
But some aren’t. First off, that adjustment only affected UEFA qualifying, it did nothing to the rest of the world. This means that the changes that occurred for non-European teams were due simply to random differences in results over 10,000 tries. How much the results could change due to randomness can be investigated using the standard deviation of a binomial. If that’s a little much for you, suffice it say that both in theory and in practice here, the numbers should change by no more than 1% in most cases due to this.
Another change is that per the earlier discussion, the teams in UEFA are seeded into two pots for the playoffs, based on their April 2009 FIFA ratings. Trying to recalculate the FIFA rankings based on the sim results is possible, I guess but then I’d have to start simulating all sorts of non-qualifying results and then it becomes way too severe a project. This appears to have had bigger effects than I would have guessed, but nothing too major.
The National Team Ratings from last time haven’t changed. Here are the new Overall Chances for Qualification.
(Almost) IN
Australia = 100%; The Aussies actually went 10,000 for 10,000 this time including advancing through the playoffs once. But since nothing changed in the code that should have altered their chances, this one is simple random chance. Sometimes they’d go 10,000 for 10,000 sometimes they’d miss a couple of times. Either way it would be the shock of a lifetime for them to miss now.
The Norwegian Rebellion
Norway from 0.10% to 11.30%; Okay so the Norwegians ultimately were the ones to feel the brunt of my previous mistake. I suppose my travel privileges there have been revoked and I deserve it. They still are longshots, but at least now there’s a chance. As the above points out, they’ll have to win a playoff to do it. Other teams whose success went up the most were Russia, Croatia, France and Turkey.
Sweden Would Like to Have a Word with the FIFA Rankings
Sweden from 45.81% to 39.87%; Most interesting was the effect an abnormally low FIFA rating appeared to have on Sweden’s chances. Their 33rd ranking almost ensures them of being in the lower pot. Scotland, surprisingly, was hurt but not as much as I would have guessed. The other four teams hurt the most were: Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Scotland, Slovakia.
Here are the chances broken down by group and then by playoff. Also, I’ve listed the number of times teams lost in the various playoff rounds. Never let it be said I don’t take requests. 
I know this has been a long post, thanks for reading and your patience.
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 98.94% Paraguay 97.92% Argentina 83.02% Chile 64.66% Uruguay 47.04% Colombia 4.59% Ecuador 2.90% Venezuela 0.61% Bolivia 0.32% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent USA 93.42% Mexico 88.28% Costa Rica 61.81% Honduras 54.48% Trinidad and Tobago 1.41% El Salvador 0.60% CAF - Group1 Percent Cameroon 31.87% Gabon 27.30% Morocco 24.36% Togo 16.47% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 52.87% Nigeria 43.48% Mozambique 2.53% Kenya 1.12% CAF - Group 3 Percent Egypt 57.35% Zambia 22.69% Algeria 15.08% Rwanda 4.88% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 72.12% Mali 23.09% Benin 3.51% Sudan 1.28% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 88.90% Burkina Faso 5.65% Guinea 5.21% Malawi 0.24% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 99.99% Japan 99.78% Bahrain 0.23% Uzbekistan 0.00% Qatar 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea Republic 95.40% Saudi Arabia 47.94% Korea DPR 33.56% Iran 23.10% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 73.83% Sweden 19.30% Portugal 4.15% Hungary 2.72% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Greece 58.24% Switzerland 38.17% Israel 3.57% Latvia 0.02% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 61.32% Czech Republic 19.62% Poland 12.73% Northern Ireland 3.14% Slovenia 3.19% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 87.94% Russia 11.44% Finland 0.62% Wales 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 99.83% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.17% Turkey 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Armenia 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 96.62% Croatia 2.29% Ukraine 1.08% Belarus 0.01% Kazakhstan 0.00% Andorra 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent France 52.44% Serbia 47.12% Lithuania 0.18% Austria 0.16% Romania 0.10% Faroe Islands 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 87.50% Ireland Republic 9.88% Bulgaria 2.60% Cyprus 0.01% Montenegro 0.01% Georgia 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 99.94% Norway 0.06% Scotland 0.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent Russia 44.65% Croatia 35.26% France 34.20% Serbia 24.65% Switzerland 21.57% Ireland Republic 21.32% Sweden 20.48% Greece 19.90% Ukraine 19.75% Czech Republic 17.70% Turkey 17.56% Portugal 13.30% Bosnia-Herzegovina 12.96% Norway 11.24% Bulgaria 10.76% Scotland 9.49% Poland 9.25% Germany 9.07% Denmark 8.89% Italy 8.09% Israel 7.72% Slovakia 5.60% Finland 3.82% Hungary 3.25% England 2.46% Slovenia 1.75% Northern Ireland 1.51% Belarus 0.97% Macedonia FYR 0.71% Lithuania 0.66% Romania 0.66% Austria 0.21% Montenegro 0.20% Spain 0.13% Belgium 0.11% Iceland 0.05% Netherlands 0.04% Wales 0.03% Latvia 0.02% Cyprus 0.01% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Iran 21.42% New Zealand 20.79% Bahrain 18.68% Saudi Arabia 19.09% Korea DPR 9.51% Uzbekistan 7.62% Korea Republic 2.67% Japan 0.11% Qatar 0.10% Australia 0.01% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Uruguay 25.38% Chile 15.59% Honduras 12.27% Argentina 11.81% Costa Rica 10.10% Colombia 7.72% Mexico 5.74% Ecuador 3.31% USA 3.43% Paraguay 1.36% Venezuela 0.88% Brazil 0.97% Bolivia 0.59% Trinidad and Tobago 0.51% El Salvador 0.34% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 44.28% Russia 29.09% Ireland Republic 28.24% Serbia 22.89% Switzerland 21.41% Ukraine 20.27% Scotland 18.71% Sweden 18.21% Norway 17.77% Greece 16.07% Croatia 15.91% Turkey 14.31% Bulgaria 14.18% Slovakia 12.96% Poland 11.97% Israel 11.61% Hungary 10.59% France 10.24% Finland 9.59% Denmark 7.79% Czech Republic 7.56% Slovenia 6.36% Portugal 6.00% Northern Ireland 5.55% Macedonia FYR 3.46% Belarus 3.37% Italy 2.77% Germany 2.58% Lithuania 2.36% Austria 0.77% Iceland 0.73% Montenegro 0.69% England 0.55% Romania 0.47% Belgium 0.24% Cyprus 0.17% Latvia 0.12% Wales 0.09% Spain 0.04% Netherlands 0.02% Estonia 0.01% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Bahrain 47.13% Korea DPR 16.83% Uzbekistan 15.95% Saudi Arabia 11.22% Iran 7.41% Korea Republic 0.88% Qatar 0.47% Japan 0.11% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 79.21% Bahrain 7.02% Korea DPR 4.66% Saudi Arabia 3.70% Uzbekistan 2.73% Iran 2.19% Korea Republic 0.42% Qatar 0.07% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Honduras 27.86% Costa Rica 23.60% Chile 11.30% Uruguay 8.50% Mexico 5.02% Trinidad and Tobago 4.90% Colombia 4.58% El Salvador 3.32% Ecuador 2.96% USA 2.91% Argentina 2.25% Venezuela 1.29% Bolivia 0.92% Paraguay 0.54% Brazil 0.03% Peru 0.02%
6 responses so far ↓
1 Anonymous Coward // Apr 10, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Here are the CAF groups with the current projected percentage listed first, and the projected percentage before the first group matches listed second. Lots of movement in groups 1 and 2.
CAF – Group 1 Percent
Cameroon 31.87% 44.30%
Gabon 27.30% 4.72%
Morocco 24.36% 45.92%
Togo 16.47% 5.06%
CAF – Group 2 Percent
Tunisia 52.87% 33.37%
Nigeria 43.48% 59.65%
Mozambique 2.53% 3.03%
Kenya 1.12% 3.95%
CAF – Group 3 Percent
Egypt 57.35% 68.32%
Zambia 22.69% 14.50%
Algeria 15.08% 12.03%
Rwanda 4.88% 5.15%
CAF – Group 4 Percent
Ghana 72.12% 63.32%
Mali 23.09% 31.16%
Benin 3.51% 4.03%
Sudan 1.28% 1.49%
CAF – Group 5 Percent
Côte d’Ivoire 88.90% 79.86%
Burkina Faso 5.65% 3.03%
Guinea 5.21% 16.69%
Malawi 0.24% 0.42%
2 Edgar // Apr 13, 2009 at 12:03 am
You’re mentioned in the Romanian press.
http://www.gsp.ro/fotbal/nationala/0-63-132878.html
3 Ross, England // Apr 13, 2009 at 8:08 am
Do you know who in Europe is most likely to finish second in their group and not make the playoffs? Is it perhaps the team out of Group 3?
4 Voros // Apr 13, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Thanks for the heads up Edgar and also for whatever role you and/or your site had in getting me the attention there.
It’s always a kick to see your name pop up. Hopefully as my diet continues I can get a better picture out there soon.
5 Voros // Apr 13, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Ross,
With everything fixed, Group 9 still looks like the most likely group. I re-ran 1,000 more checking that team (it wasn’t recorded in the first 10,000) and the top 10 were:
Scotland = 16.9%
Norway = 13.4%
Ireland = 11.2%
Poland = 6.7%
Czech Republic = 6.4%
Turkey = 6.2%
Macedonia = 5.4%
Hungary = 3.6%
Portugal = 3.5%
Slovenia = 3.5%
And by group:
Group 1: 11.6%
Group 2: 1.8%
Group 3: 21.2%
Group 4: 1.2%
Group 5: 9.8%
Group 6: 1.8%
Group 7: 2.4%
Group 8: 13.5%
Group 9: 36.7%
6 scaryice // May 27, 2009 at 10:25 pm
I assume we’re gonna see some Confederations Cup odds pretty soon (followed by Gold Cup odds)?
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