Going to change up the format a little here because so much has happened. Will go through things region by region and note the important happenings. The nitty is certainly starting to become gritty now and this will be a very long post.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
IN
Ghana = 100%; Côte d’Ivoire = 100%. Ghana have officially clinched qualification, Côte d’Ivoire have not. However the turn of events that would need to occur for Côte d’Ivoire to fail to qualify at this point fall into the categoy of unlikely to the point of not worrying about it. Brazil were in a similar situation in July. The sims had them in earlier, but they didn’t officially clinch it until a few days ago. The best news for me is that I won’t have to figure out how to correctly type in “Côte d’Ivoire” any more.
OUT
Mali, Burkina Faso, Macedonia, Rwanda, Benin, Montenegro, Guinea, Belgium, Cyprus = 0.00%. I’m not going to bother figuring out which teams are officially finished and which aren’t. None of these teams are making it. The Spanish delivered the coup de grâce on Belgium in spectacular fashion (though technically they’re still alive). The Belgian national team has really fallen on hard times. All the other teams besides Rwanda are pretty solid sides, but Iran and Senegal remain the best teams the sims have dismissed so far. The Cypriot zombies are now officially vanquished.
Going Up
Cameroon = 60.00%; Switzerland = 86.56%; Tunisia = 70.28%; Honduras = 83.19%; Mexico = 96.88%. To say Cameroon came up with a big road win against Gabon is an understatement. It was gigantic and completely reversed the two teams situations. The big showdown between Greece and Switzerland went to the Swiss who now find themselves in very good shape. It’s rare for a draw to cause such a jump at this stage, but Oussama Darragi’s 89th minute strike in Nigeria has vaulted Tunisia past Nigeria to take a clear advantage in that group. And in CONCACAF Mexico’s surprise 3-0 thumping of Costa Rica in Saprissa was good news for both them and Honduras.
Downers
Gabon = 27.67%; Costa Rica = 66.36%; Nigeria = 29.25%; Greece = 66.34%; Uruguay = 25.01%. You have to feel for Gabon. They were a home win away from putting one foot in the qualification door. Even a draw would have been a sufficient, but the loss now puts Cameroon back in. Gabon will need at least a draw in Cameroon to still have a decent shot at making it. The Ticos went from 1st to 4th in CONCACAF in one fell swoop with a very poor result at home to Mexico. As mentioned, Nigeria were just a few minutes away from taking command of their group and now are in some real trouble. Greece still has a good chance of qualifying, but may need the playoff to do it now. Road wins are not normally expected in South America, but Uruguay giving Peru only their second qualifying win has kept a whole host of teams new life.
Africa
The only group not mentioned thus far is Group 3. Egypt’s road win in Rwanda certainly keeps them in the picture, but Algeria also won. Egypt now faces a situation where even if they can still qualify on the last matchday, they may need a multiple goal win at home against a tough Algerian side. Algeria therefore retains an advantage in that group.
Asia/Oceania
The home and home to see who meets New Zealand is now underway but a 0-0 draw in Bahrain appears to have settled very little in their matchup with the Saudis. Saudi Arabia failing to get a road goal does put them at risk a little, even if a draw was generally a good result. Both teams would be favored over the Kiwis at this point.
Europe
The Group 1 saga continues with Portugal getting what would normally be a good result in Denmark, but which might not be enough given their current predicament. The Swedish win in Hungary was not good news for Portugal though, and the Swedes now have the inside track for 2nd place in the group. The Danes can probably taste it now, but the Swedish win still gives them a little concern. Hungary, despite currently sitting in 2nd, is in big trouble due to a very difficult final three games. There’s a decent chance they’ve gotten all the points they’re going to get.
In Group 2, Israel’s home loss to Latvia badly hurts them but doesn’t really help the Latvians either. Both are in very big trouble now.
In Group 3, Slovakia damn near put themselves in all sorts of good, but Milan Baros kept the Czechs on life support earning a road draw for them. Similarly, an Aaron Hughes own goal keeps Poland alive and prevents the Northern Irish from getting what would have been a gigantic road win. Wednesday’s match in Belfast with the group leaders is a very big one. The system still believes the Poles and the Czechs are more likely to qualify than the Northern Irish though. The Czechs have nothing but home games left including a guaranteed three points on Wednesday at home against the weakest team in Europe.
Group 4 remains essentially in a holding pattern, but it’s hard to underestimate just how important Wednesday’s match in Cardiff is for the Russians. The Welsh are still technically alive (if practically not so much) so one suspects the Russians will have to fight them. They don’t necessarily need to win, but a draw complicates things for them a bit. Germany should prevail over Azerbaijan in Hannover. The two will then have to prepare for the showdown in Moscow in early October.
It’s hard to believe that Spain could win 5-0 and see their chances go down (if only slightly) but that’s likely just a factor of randomness and a fine road win for the Bosnians. The Spanish are going to win this group eventually, and the battle for second is now clearly between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. The other three teams are out according to the sims.
Croatia and Ukraine both held serve at home, meaning England has a chance to end this once and for all against the Croatians at Wembley on Wednesday. Once again 2nd place has been clarified, with Croatia and Ukraine now virtually certain to be the ones to finish 2nd. Both teams have difficult road games on Wednesday.
It’s a must win for France on Wednesday in Serbia if they still want to win the group. Nevertheless, even a loss wouldn’t put them in a lot of danger when it comes to 2nd place. The system believes that France and Serbia will almost certainly be the top two teams. While normally a draw in France is an excellent result for Romania, their situation meant that really only a win would keep their faint hopes alive. The Austrians and Lithuanians are similarly all but out.
Big road wins for the Irish and the Italians continue to make them likely the one-two combo in Group 8. A home win for the Italians against Bulgaria on Wednesday will mean that a home win on the final match day against Cyprus will win them the group, regardless of the result in Dublin. The Irish are idle on Wednesday, and the best result for them would be a draw between Italy and Bulgaria. The Bulgarians are still alive, but only just.
Finally Group 9 finishes on Wednesday, but the 2nd place team will still have a lot to watch from here. The system believes there’s over a 70% chance that the worst 2nd place team will come from this group. However the system can’t really adjust for the fact that the Dutch have nothing to play for in Glasgow and so Scottish chances may be better than the system suggests. That said, you can’t assume a win for the Scots will be easy. Nobody wants to be seen as laying down, and the Dutch will likely put forth a reasonable effort. The Norwegians probably needed a win in Iceland for any number of reasons, and only got a draw.
North America
The top 4 in CONCACAF has become a battle royale as the four teams all sit within a point of one another. T&T and El Salvador are now more or less finished, and the other four teams are all pretty much assured of at least a playoff with South America. Costa Rica traveling to El Salvador is the one to watch on Wednesday. Three points is what the Ticos are going to want, less than that means they’ll likely need a good result in RFK on the final matchday. Obviously the USA will be looking for three points in Trinidad, while Honduras will be the last of the big four to try their luck in Azteca. This one is likely to go down to the final matchday.
South America
The most surprising thing in the sims was that Argentina’s qualification chances actually went up if only slightly. This was a direct result of Uruguay’s loss in Peru. They have a four point lead on Uruguay, meaning that Uruguay would need some sort of result in Ecuador to catch them. Ecuador and Colombia also have very difficult schedules remaining. The system still gives the Argentines close to an 80% chance of being one of the top four teams, and they would obviously be favorites in any playoff with CONCACAF they were in. Chile and Paraguay are now both just whiskers away from punching their tickets. Venezuela is still alive after a great result in Chile. Their final two games could very well be against teams who have already qualified, giving them a slight advantage not reflected in the numbers. However a slip up against Peru on Wednesday would be very very bad.
Last Place in 2nd Place
The following are the percentages for each point total (minus points against the last place teams in the first eight groups) for the worst 2nd place finisher in UEFA. There’s very likely to be tiebreakers involved here, so simply adding a point to the totals will give you a decent “safety percentage.”
13 points = 0.34%
12 points = 8.13%
11 points = 30.33%
10 points = 60.25%
9 points = 0.95%
Data Dump
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 100.00% Paraguay 99.16% Chile 98.66% Argentina 77.88% Uruguay 9.50% Ecuador 7.82% Colombia 6.74% Venezuela 0.24% Bolivia 0.00% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent Mexico 92.73% USA 84.13% Honduras 72.09% Costa Rica 51.05% Trinidad and Tobago 0.00% El Salvador 0.00% CAF - Group1 Percent Cameroon 60.00% Gabon 27.67% Togo 6.92% Morocco 5.41% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 70.28% Nigeria 29.25% Mozambique 0.38% Kenya 0.09% CAF - Group 3 Percent Algeria 74.67% Egypt 25.30% Zambia 0.03% Rwanda 0.00% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 100.00% Mali 0.00% Benin 0.00% Sudan 0.00% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 100.00% Burkina Faso 0.00% Guinea 0.00% Malawi 0.00% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 100.00% Japan 100.00% Bahrain 0.00% Uzbekistan 0.00% Qatar 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea Republic 100.00% Korea DPR 100.00% Saudi Arabia 0.00% Iran 0.00% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 92.24% Sweden 6.53% Portugal 0.92% Hungary 0.31% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Switzerland 72.29% Greece 27.42% Israel 0.16% Latvia 0.13% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 76.32% Czech Republic 8.23% Slovenia 6.61% Poland 5.40% Northern Ireland 3.44% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 81.24% Russia 18.76% Finland 0.00% Wales 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 99.86% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.14% Turkey 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Armenia 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 99.24% Croatia 0.54% Ukraine 0.22% Belarus 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% Andorra 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent Serbia 68.69% France 31.31% Lithuania 0.00% Austria 0.00% Romania 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 91.27% Ireland Republic 8.22% Bulgaria 0.51% Cyprus 0.00% Montenegro 0.00% Georgia 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 100.00% Norway 0.00% Scotland 0.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent France 48.61% Russia 48.14% Greece 38.92% Croatia 38.50% Ireland Republic 28.46% Sweden 22.89% Portugal 22.74% Czech Republic 19.77% Ukraine 18.56% Serbia 17.16% Bosnia-Herzegovina 15.05% Switzerland 14.27% Germany 14.27% Turkey 13.40% Scotland 6.38% Poland 6.06% Italy 5.45% Bulgaria 4.02% Denmark 3.69% Slovakia 2.99% Northern Ireland 2.76% Slovenia 2.63% Norway 2.15% Hungary 1.22% Israel 0.53% England 0.49% Latvia 0.27% Finland 0.17% Romania 0.16% Spain 0.11% Lithuania 0.09% Austria 0.07% Belarus 0.02% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Saudi Arabia 55.22% Bahrain 26.56% New Zealand 18.22% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Colombia 16.26% Uruguay 15.51% Costa Rica 15.31% Argentina 14.29% Ecuador 12.76% Honduras 11.10% USA 7.67% Mexico 4.15% Venezuela 1.54% Chile 0.82% Paraguay 0.54% El Salvador 0.03% Trinidad and Tobago 0.02% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 53.36% Ireland Republic 48.93% Russia 32.40% Greece 30.33% Sweden 22.26% Ukraine 21.13% Croatia 20.62% France 18.46% Scotland 17.49% Czech Republic 16.09% Turkey 15.49% Portugal 14.57% Serbia 14.01% Switzerland 12.00% Northern Ireland 9.64% Slovenia 9.05% Poland 8.46% Bulgaria 7.95% Slovakia 7.62% Germany 4.46% Hungary 4.02% Norway 2.43% Denmark 2.41% Italy 2.33% Israel 1.64% Latvia 1.38% Finland 0.55% England 0.19% Lithuania 0.18% Romania 0.18% Austria 0.16% Belarus 0.11% Macedonia FYR 0.06% Spain 0.03% Wales 0.01% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Bahrain 65.19% Saudi Arabia 34.81% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 81.78% Saudi Arabia 9.97% Bahrain 8.25% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Costa Rica 33.32% Honduras 16.76% Ecuador 13.12% Colombia 11.18% USA 8.20% Uruguay 7.49% Argentina 3.32% Mexico 3.08% Venezuela 2.38% Chile 0.49% Paraguay 0.30% Trinidad and Tobago 0.21% El Salvador 0.15% Worst 2nd Place UEFA Percent Scotland 33.53% Norway 32.65% Czech Republic 6.21% Macedonia FYR 5.31% Poland 3.78% Portugal 3.67% Ireland Republic 2.79% Sweden 1.98% Slovenia 1.97% Northern Ireland 1.94% Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.64% Slovakia 1.03% Turkey 0.88% France 0.77% Hungary 0.50% Greece 0.26% Croatia 0.19% Ukraine 0.19% Switzerland 0.18% Israel 0.12% Latvia 0.10% Serbia 0.09% Bulgaria 0.06% Denmark 0.05% Belgium 0.04% Romania 0.04% Lithuania 0.02% Italy 0.01%
6 responses so far ↓
1 Alex // Sep 7, 2009 at 9:25 am
Great work as always, Voros, a fascinating read. Many thanks for all your efforts on this – very much appreciated!
2 california viola // Sep 8, 2009 at 8:50 am
Thanks for the update. I’m looking forward the Wednesday’s matches.
3 simon // Sep 8, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Thanks for this, I always cherish the updates. Again I put it in a simple spreadsheet that aggregates by team.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rqT-phRv6MFvV0_Kz_ZtOIQ&single=true&gid=1&output=html
4 Voros // Sep 8, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Thanks for the spreadsheet Simon.
Expect some dramatic shifts after tomorrow. Will try and get another update up by Friday, but I can’t make any promises with the computer still down.
5 Seadondo // Sep 15, 2009 at 2:06 pm
any updates on when the next update will arrive?
6 Voros // Sep 15, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Yeah, sorry. Things have gotten busy here.
Either Wednesday or Thursday at the latest. I just have to clear time and get it done.
Leave a Comment