Who’s in? Who’s out? Should Norway celebrate? How’s Alvaro’s bets looking right now? So many questions, answers to come.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
NEWI’ve posted the raw data from each of the 10,000 sims in a file in .csv (comma-delimited) format. The file is a little under 4 MB. The top line are column headings that explain what the column means, and then each new line represents a new sim. Right click on the file below and save the link (some browsers will display the .csv file as a text file and that might annoy you and will certainly annoy my web host):
http://vorosmccracken.com/qualsims091709.csv
I’ll note that unlike the other files, this one won’t stay up forever (too big). I’ll simply replace it after the next round of sims.
Now onto the show!
In
Spain, England, Paraguay = 100.00%. All three have officially qualified and so all three qualify here too. An interesting note: the Ivory Coast has not officially qualified yet (no games were played in the group since the last update). However, another 10,000 sims were run, and once again they won the group all 10,000 times. In other words, official or not, 20,000 for 20,000 means they’re going.
Out
Saudi Arabia, Scotland, Finland, Romania, Lithuania, Belarus, Trinidad and Tobago = 100%. Romania earns the dubious distinction of being the highest ranked team (17th) to get eliminated (though apparently there’s still some remote mathematical chance). However Portugal, Denmark and Sweden are all currently ranked above them so it’s unlikely they will keep that title. Romania’s misfortunes are an object lesson as to how quickly qualifying get away from you. The Saudis didn’t hold serve at home (drawing 2-2 and losing on the dreaded away goals rule) and so they’ll miss the World Cup. We’ll get to Scotland in a bit. The others have been all but dead for a while, so this is just a formality now.
UP
Bahrain =72.23%; Ecuador =48.00%; Portugal = 40.47%; Slovakia = 92.06%; Cameroon = 71.99%. Well that sure helped Bahrain’s cause. They once again return to the final hurdle, hoping to do better against the Kiwis than they did against T&T in 2005. Cameroon sweeps Gabon to surge into pole position in their group. All of South America and Europe will be dealt with below.
DOWN
This is not the group to be in at this stage. Saudi Arabia = 0.00%; Costa Rica = 47.13%; Colombia = 6.54%; Argentina = 78.58%; Gabon = 17.57%. The Saudis and Gabon are the victims of the improved fortunes of Bahrain and Cameroon. Gabon is still alive, Saudi Arabia obviously is finished. The rest covered below.
Gamblers Anonymous Update
In this post in July commenter Alvaro had this to say:
Im trusting you man, I placed bets on Serbia and Denmark to win their group. :p
Well let’s see how Alvaro’s stock portfolio looks:
Denmark: From 94.24% to 92.00%
Serbia: From 56.03% to 79.65%
The Danes have had some uneven results and could have put this away by now. However two draws or (very likely) one win should still do the trick. Both games are at home, though both opponents are capable. The Serbians are a win away from finally putting away the French. We’ll see what the Romanians come up with in Serbia to try and spoil the party. Two draws might do it, but the French do have an opportunity to run up a score on the Faroes if they can, which would negate Serbia’s current goal advantage.
So I think Alvaro is in good shape to come out ahead, since it would seem he got better than even money on the Serbs.
UEFA Group 1
It’s now Sweden or Portugal who remain in the way of the Danes. The Portuguese have righted the ship and now are favored to snag second ahead of Sweden as they have two home games remaining and the Swedes have the big one in Denmark. The home loss to Portugal essentially finishes Hungary off barring a miracle, and it can’t be overstated what a huge result that was for Portugal. One small pitfall for Portugal is that they remain one of the possibilities (albeit very small) for worst 2nd place team. They can fix that with two wins and a Sweden loss in Denmark. For their part, Sweden would be wise to take the Albanians seriously on the final matchday. They’re one of the main reasons Portugal has had to come from so far back as they held the Portuguese scoreless in Portugal earlier.
UEFA Group 2
A 90th minute equalizing goal from Moldovan midfielder Valeriu Andronic kept Greece from getting right back in it. Instead, despite a Swiss draw in Latvia, Switzerland now is about five and a half times more likely to win this group than Greece. Israel still has a way outside shot to win the group, but Switzerland is in command. As for second place, Greece remains overwhelming favorite here and didn’t place worst 2nd a single time. Israel’s chances here are a little better, with their total chances a little under 3%. Israel did finish worst 2nd a few times, but not many.
UEFA Group 3
Well this is kind of a mess. The simple part is that either Slovakia or Slovenia will win the group, with Slovenia needing to win in Slovakia to keep things alive. That means Slovakia is about an 89% favorite now, and they’re guaranteed at least a playoff. Well done from a team that was not necessarily one of the favorites when this group began. At this point the Czechs and Slovenia have roughly an equal chance of taking 2nd place. The bad news for the Slovenians: the system does not consider them a particularly strong team and does not really like their odds of winning a playoff. Bad news for the Czechs: while not a big deal, the Czechs are the third most likely team to worst 2nd, and are one of only three teams with better than a 1% chance of that happening. Poland and Northern Ireland are still in this in theory, but the chances are very slim now. The Northern Irish in particular are in real trouble as their final game is in the Czech Republic against what will likely be a very motivated team.
UEFA Group 4
This one is much easier. It’s either Germany or it’s Russia, and the loser goes to the playoffs (almost certainly as a seeded team if seeding is used). The system says Germany = 64.42%; Russia = 35.58%. I’m going to do an entire post on this matchup and demonstrate exactly how the ratings are used to simulate the results of a game. So I’ll stop here and simply say that Germany needs either a win or a draw while the Russians need the win. I’ll refrain from making a WWII related joke about German trips to Moscow. 🙂
UEFA Group 5
The Spanish finally put the finishing touches on what was a race severely lacking in suspense. Now the real business needs to be settled. Turkey needs two wins, which looks somewhat doable. Bosnia-Herzegovina needs just one to offset that possibility, and they can get it either by beating Estonia in Estonia, or by beating the Spanish team in Bosnia and it’s always hard to tell how excellent teams with nothing to play for will react to those sorts of situations. The system has the Bosnians as an over 80% chance of finishing 2nd and only a tiny chance of being worst 2nd.
UEFA Group 6
England is in and now we need to find out who is second. It’s going to either be Croatia or Ukraine, and neither will finish worst 2nd. Right now it’s pretty close with Croatia up 57 to 43, but the system again can’t really predict how England will approach their upcoming match in Ukraine. Should Ukraine pull out the win there, Croatia is in BIG trouble as Andorra has been an automatic three points for everyone.
UEFA Group 7
France and Serbia were one and two all but eight times (Austria the only other team to finish in 2nd) and if my calculations are correct the worst 2nd place team will not come from this group, though theoretically it could if Romania is that team. Romania is almost certainly not going to be that team (the chances of their finishing ahead of both the French and Austrians need a series of improbable results to occur) so it isn’t going to happen. The good news for the French is that the system had them qualifying via the playoff’s 57.50% of the time, meaning their qualification chances (roughly 78%) are still quite good.
UEFA Group 8
Italy wins this group 98.08% of the time with the Irish taking the rest. Bulgaria did finish 2nd about 7% of the time, and if they finish 2nd they will not be the worst 2nd finisher. Ireland however is in a different situation, which brings us to…
UEFA Group 9
The Dutch won this group roughly two minutes after the group was announced, so the only drama was who would finish 2nd and how many points they would post. After Scotland conceded a late goal to young Dutchman Eljero Elia, it was Norway who would finish second, but with only 10 points. But where does that put them? In really bad shape unfortunately for them. The Norwegians finished as the worst 2nd place team an astounding 93.66% of the time. To further complicate things, even should they manage to escape that, if Europe seeds they likely will draw someone like the Portuguese, Czechs or Russians/Germans. Who is their best shot to finish ahead. Turns out it’s the Irish. The Irish have two wins over Georgia, currently sitting in last in that group. They also have 16 points and a less than impressive goal differential. If Ireland loses twice, they are out, even if they manage to still hold onto second in the group. Ireland finished as the worst 2nd place team 2.89% of the time. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s Norway’s best chance. The Czech Republic finished worst 2nd 1.92% of the time. Their route to 16 points is actually much more likely than Ireland’s. The problem is San Marino would need to pull off an improbable draw against Slovenia for that to occur (otherwise Slovenia will finish with at least 17 points). Despite their impressive run here, Slovenia is not normally a great team, so I suppose there’s some small chance, but I think the system is a little kind to San Marino’s chances because of an imperfect home field advantage adjustment.
To summarize all that, Norway needs an awful lot of things to go their way, and they should probably focus on the Irish as their main concern.
CONMEBOL
Paraguay zoomed out to a fast start and then faltered a little, but the big 1-0 win at home versus the Argentines finally did the trick and they’ve now finished off what has been a very long run of “almost there.” I’m not sure what I’m missing, but Chile’s situation looks slightly more precarious than the sims say they’re in. I suspect the sims are right and my mind is playing tricks on me. Argentina is making this a lot more difficult than it needs to be, and now Ecuador has control of their own destiny. If Ecuador wins out, there’s nothing Argentina can do about it. Ecuador winning out isn’t going to be easy though. So Argentina probably wants Chile to lose in Colombia to keep their interest up for the final matchday at home against Ecuador. Argentina will almost certainly have 25 points going into the final match, but Uruguay on the road sure won’t be easy.
Argentina remains the favorite to grab 4th place by virtue of the fact that, despite recent setbacks, they’re clearly the best of the teams fighting for that spot and the soft home game remaining against Peru. However “not Argentina” is now a slight favorite over Argentina as their direct qualification chances are now just below 50%. Ecuador stands at about 30% while the Uruguayans made the top four 22% of the time. Colombia and Venezuela are both heavy longshots now.
CONCACAF
How the worm has turned for Costa Rica. In early July their qualification chances stood at just about 94%. Just about everything that could have gone wrong since then has. 4-0 loss at Honduras. A devastating 3-1 loss at home to Mexico. And then a 1-0 road loss to El Salvador. Over that same period of time, Mexico snagged 9 points and the Hondurans and Americans snagged 6. As if that turn of events wasn’t bad enough, to the south every passing matchday the chances of the 5th place team in CONMEBOL being Argentina became more and more likely. A home and home against Messi and company with the World Cup on the line is a tall order for the best of CONCACAF and that title doesn’t seem to apply to Costa Rica right now. What looked to be a comfortable situation has now turned into real danger as they now sit below 50% for qualification with a third place or better finish happening only 26.67% of the time. A real stunning turn of events.
And it’s an ill wind that blows good to no man. Mexico’s recent run of form has them sitting pretty with a 99.90% chance of qualification, 99.69% directly as one of the top three. The US still has a little work to do, but they’re now back up at 96.95% and look well placed to make it from here. Honduras now sit at 86.65% a number they would have gladly taken going in, but they appear to be turning into a legitimately strong side. They would dearly like to hold serve at home against the US to maintain their lead on the Ticos going into the final matchday. Costa Rica would dearly like to see the US win that game, as it would not only deny Honduras points, but it would mean the US will have qualified and would be more likely to send an under-strength squad to the final match. El Salvador needs a miracle, that just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. They’ve done themselves proud nevertheless.
Data Dump
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 100.00% Paraguay 100.00% Chile 98.53% Argentina 47.38% Ecuador 29.69% Uruguay 22.04% Colombia 1.89% Venezuela 0.47% Bolivia 0.00% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent Mexico 99.69% USA 94.45% Honduras 79.09% Costa Rica 26.67% El Salvador 0.10% Trinidad and Tobago 0.00% CAF - Group1 Percent Cameroon 71.99% Gabon 17.57% Togo 6.89% Morocco 3.55% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 70.96% Nigeria 28.49% Mozambique 0.47% Kenya 0.08% CAF - Group 3 Percent Algeria 74.96% Egypt 24.96% Zambia 0.08% Rwanda 0.00% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 100.00% Mali 0.00% Benin 0.00% Sudan 0.00% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 100.00% Burkina Faso 0.00% Guinea 0.00% Malawi 0.00% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 100.00% Japan 100.00% Bahrain 0.00% Uzbekistan 0.00% Qatar 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea Republic 100.00% Korea DPR 100.00% Saudi Arabia 0.00% Iran 0.00% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 92.00% Sweden 6.04% Portugal 1.95% Hungary 0.01% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Switzerland 83.81% Greece 15.41% Israel 0.78% Latvia 0.00% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 88.82% Slovenia 11.18% Czech Republic 0.00% Poland 0.00% Northern Ireland 0.00% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 64.42% Russia 35.58% Finland 0.00% Wales 0.00% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 100.00% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.00% Turkey 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Armenia 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 100.00% Croatia 0.00% Ukraine 0.00% Belarus 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% Andorra 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent Serbia 79.65% France 20.35% Lithuania 0.00% Austria 0.00% Romania 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 98.08% Ireland Republic 1.92% Bulgaria 0.00% Cyprus 0.00% Montenegro 0.00% Georgia 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 100.00% Norway 0.00% Scotland 0.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent France 57.50% Greece 43.98% Russia 39.21% Portugal 38.52% Croatia 36.14% Ireland Republic 32.04% Germany 26.84% Czech Republic 22.31% Ukraine 18.62% Bosnia-Herzegovina 17.74% Sweden 15.10% Serbia 11.76% Slovenia 8.76% Turkey 7.87% Switzerland 7.24% Slovakia 3.24% Denmark 2.98% Norway 2.50% Bulgaria 2.44% Poland 1.87% Israel 1.83% Italy 1.18% Hungary 0.13% Northern Ireland 0.11% Latvia 0.07% Austria 0.02% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Bahrain 72.23% New Zealand 27.77% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Argentina 31.20% Costa Rica 20.46% Ecuador 18.31% Uruguay 13.38% Honduras 7.56% Colombia 4.65% USA 2.50% Venezuela 0.84% Chile 0.82% Mexico 0.21% El Salvador 0.07% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 64.75% Ireland Republic 56.18% Greece 35.64% Slovenia 31.42% Russia 25.21% Portugal 25.16% Ukraine 23.62% France 22.07% Croatia 21.62% Czech Republic 18.45% Sweden 14.88% Turkey 9.26% Germany 8.74% Serbia 8.59% Slovakia 7.94% Switzerland 6.88% Bulgaria 4.53% Israel 3.87% Norway 3.84% Poland 3.24% Denmark 2.02% Italy 0.74% Hungary 0.49% Northern Ireland 0.46% Latvia 0.34% Austria 0.06% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Saudi Arabia 100.00% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 72.23% Bahrain 27.77% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Costa Rica 52.43% Ecuador 13.96% Honduras 13.04% Argentina 6.48% Uruguay 5.58% Colombia 3.09% USA 3.05% Venezuela 1.04% Chile 0.65% El Salvador 0.58% Mexico 0.10% Worst 2nd Place UEFA Percent Norway 93.66% Ireland Republic 2.89% Czech Republic 1.92% Portugal 0.65% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.32% Poland 0.28% Israel 0.15% Turkey 0.06% Sweden 0.05% Hungary 0.02%
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