Okay, there’s 9 spots left, 4 in Europe, 3 in Africa and 2 more in playoffs between Asia and Oceania and North and South America.
An important note: One minor change has been made to the National Team rankings. In the explanation to the rating system posted earlier, I explained that I needed to convert goal scoring to a number between 0 and 1. To do that I divided goals by the number ‘180.’ That number has been changed to 27. Why? Well because it appears to work better, it covers every single score in the history of international soccer and it also makes a favorite like Slovenia was over San Marino less likely to drop points (but not by a lot). For now that’s the only change I’m making as other changes have proven to be a little more complicated and I need time to work on them.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
Ireland vs France
France = 74.78%, Ireland = 24.22%. Bookies: France = 70.91%, Ireland = 29.09%. When it comes to individual playoff matchups like this, the results predicted by a National Team rating system can offer differ from folks expectations for a variety of reasons, most notably injury. With Franck Ribery out for both legs of this one and Damien Duff apparently ready to give it a go, the injury situation has certainly favored the Irish. My system often differs from others in that it takes a longer term look at the results of the teams involved. This also makes the French a bigger favorite than folks might think (it wasn’t that long ago where my system felt France was one of the two best teams in the world). It’s really hard to say just what to do with those numbers. But I still think the French are probably a better team than the Irish and the bookies seem to agree. We’ll see.
Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Portugal = 84.52%, Bosnia-Herzegovina = 15.48%. Bookies: Portugal = 70.91%, Bosnia-Herzegovina = 29.09%. Speaking of injuries, Cristiano Ronaldo is out for this one which I think is a major reason for the wide discrepancy between the system’s odds and those of the bookie. Bosnia has some talent, there’s no doubt including former St. Louis University standout Vedad Ibisevic. But the Portguese have come from a long way back to just make it this far, and despite the losses of Ronaldo and others, they still should win this. But I think the system odds are a little high.
Ukraine vs Greece
Ukraine = 53.35%, Greece = 46.65%. Bookies: Ukraine = 53.33%, Greece = 46.67%. Have the bookies been sneaking a peak over here? 🙂 That’s pretty insane how close that is. This is the one UEFA matchup where the seeded team is actually the underdog. This one’s essentially a coinflip, the small advantage Ukraine has is not particularly meaningful. It was a bad break for the Greeks as they were the worst of the seeded teams and drew the best of the unseeded ones. But they can win this one and both teams will need to bring their best over the two legs.
Russia vs Slovenia
Russia= 71.07%, Slovenia = 28.93%. Bookies: Russia = 78.31%, Slovenia = 21.69%. My ranking system has had Russia underrated compared to conventional wisdom for a while now and the difference with the bookies reflects that. But that does mean it was closer to getting the result against Germany right than conventional wisdom. They are a team whose record of winning is better than their record of goal scoring and the system looks at goal scoring. Slovenia has impressed lately and if the Russians take them lightly, they could get burned. The Russians are still the clear favorites, but an upset is certainly as possible here as it is in the two other matches with significant favorites.
Costa Rica vs Uruguay
Uruguay = 73.09%, Costa Rica = 26.91%. Bookies: Uruguay = 73.13%, Costa Rica = 26.87%. The bookies once again get caught peeking at my paper. The first leg is in a very difficult to play place in Costa Rica so we’ll know a lot about this one after the first leg. Costa Rica of course will feel they shouldn’t have to go through this, but have to put those thoughts behind them. Uruguay is a strong team and Costa Rica has some talent. The Uruguayans are a solid but not overwhelming favorite here.
Bahrain vs New Zealand
Bahrain = 61.73%, New Zealand = 38.27%. Bookies: Bahrain = 57.66, New Zealand = 42.34%. The first leg of this one finished 0-0 in Bahrain, and now the Kiwis will need a win at home to go through. A 0-0 draw sends it to extra time. All other draws and a Bahrain win send them to South Africa. The bookies like New Zealand’s chances a little better than the system, and it’s possible the system could underrate a Kiwi team that often plays less meaningful matches with an understrength side. But I think Bahrain is the better team (which mostly nullifies the Kiwi’s home field), and with most of the draws pointing in their favor, they deserve to be the slight favorites here.
CAF Group A
Cameroon = 72.20%, Gabon = 27.80%. Bookies: Cameroon = 74.38, Gabon = 25.62%. Gabon had a golden shot but couldn’t hold serve at home against Cameroon. They will need at least a draw on the road against Togo, but that would require Cameroon to lose by at least two on the road against Morocco. A win for Gabon and anything but a win for Cameroon sends them through. All other results send Cameroon through. The odds above look more or less correct to me.
CAF Group B
Tunisia = 68.65%, Nigeria = 31.35%. Bookies: Tunisia = 73.96%, Nigeria = 26.04%. The Nigerians need some assistance now as they will need to win on the road against Kenya and need Tunisia not to win on the road in Mozambique. They do have the tiebreaker so a Tunisian draw and a Nigerian win sees the Nigerians through. The bookies sees this as roughly the same as above, but I think the Nigerians have a slightly better shot than Gabon as they have a weaker team to deal with than Gabon does and are a stronger team overall.
CAF Group C
Algeria = 70.01%, Egypt = 29.99%, Bookies: Algeria = 63.75%, Egypt = 37.25%. The first thing to note is that the tiebreaker (if needed) will be a one game playoff on the 18th in Sudan. That tie will come about if Egypt wins by two (and exactly two) goals with the specific two goal scoreline being irrelevant. Should Egypt win only by a goal or not at all, Algeria goes through. Should Egypt win by three or more, Egypt goes through. The bettors seem to like Egypt’s chances more than the system does. Egypt is considered the stronger team and is at home, but winning by two goals against a solid team like Algeria is easier than it sounds, particularly when Algeria knows this. There’s already been a woofing going on in this one and I expect Cairo is going to be quite an intimidating home field. Of all the matches on the 14th, this would be the one as a neutral I’d want to see. Should be fun.
There’s no real purpose to the data dump at this point. All of the in depth information is now boiling down to the basic results above. In terms of the bookie percentages all of the non-African percentages were taken from Bet365 and the African percentages were taken from Unibet. I thought I’d include them just as a sort of guide as to how well the system matches up with public perception.
I’ll put one more up after the weekend’s games (I think they’re all on the 14th but I’m not sure off the top of my head) and then after the 18th we’ll move onto the big enchilada.
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