Three more teams are in, the final six will be known by tomorrow night.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
In
New Zealand, Cameroon, Nigeria = 100%. The Kiwis saved a penalty in their match that would have knocked them out. A lot has been said about their relatively easy qualifying schedule, but starting off qualifying knowing that you’ll have to win a home and home playoff regardless is not necessarily the easiest thing to do. They also could have faced a tougher Asian team like Iran, but Iran failed to deliver when they needed to and then Saudi Arabia stumbled late leaving Bahrain as the final Asian team. Bahrain could have also managed to score a goal in one of the two games, but they didn’t. So ultimately, New Zealand (unlike many teams who will qualify) didn’t finish behind a single team they got to face so they’ve passed every test they’ve been given. Cameroon did what was asked of them in the final match, but the big match was the road win in Gabon which completely reversed the trend of the group. Nigeria gets a bunch of help and manages to jump into the World Cup at the last possible second. They should consider themselves quite fortunate, but as one of Africa’s strongest sides have the ability to put together a run if things go their way.
Out
Bahrain, Gabon, Tunisia = 0%. It’s a real tough time to be part of this group. Bahrain, as mentioned, had lots of opportunities to finally qualify and they squandered them, and now have to regroup and hope they get another chance in 2014. Gabon ultimately finished behind the better team, but nevertheless had a golden opportunity to get it done and didn’t take it. And Tunisia needed a road win in Mozambique to knock out the Nigerians and couldn’t come up with it.
Ireland vs France
France = 93.46%, Ireland = 6.54%. Losing 1-0 at home was not what the Irish needed and now they are the longest shot of the remaining teams. Why them and not Costa Rica? Well France for a while now has been a team who has had a lot more trouble scoring goals than preventing them. Because such a profile leads to relatively more draws, this makes them a weaker team in group stages and a stronger team in playoffs and knockout stages. Ireland has had a similar profile. The end result is now that a team whose defense has been better than their offense now has to go on the road and score a goal against a team who fits the same profile. Uruguay and Costa Rica have opposite profiles (offenses stronger than defenses) meaning that Costa Rica is more likely (according to the system anyway) to score a goal in Uruguay than Ireland is in France. Neither team is in good shape at any rate.
Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Portugal = 85.67%, Bosnia-Herzegovina = 14.33%. Bosnia-Herzegovina failed to get a road goal, but did manage to hold the Portuguese to just one. That probably won’t be good enough, but you never really know, and they certainly aren’t in a position where they should give up. The Portguese are looking simply to survive this and then get healthy in time for summer 2010.
Greece vs Ukraine
Ukraine = 57.17%, Greece = 42.83%. The good news for the Greeks is that they didn’t allow a road goal. The bad news is that they didn’t score one themselves. So their chances have probably decreased but only slightly. This remains the closest of the remaining qualification battles, though there have been reversals in others.
Russia vs Slovenia
Russia = 71.74%, Slovenia = 28.26%. If Slovenia had to lose, that was the way to do it. Nejc Pe?nik’s 88th minute road goal keeps this one at roughly the same chances going into the 2nd leg. The Russians probably would have preferred to keep the clean sheet and now face going out with a 1-0 loss in Slovenia. The Russians should still be a solid favorite, but Slovenia still has a shot here.
Costa Rica vs Uruguay
Uruguay = 89.73%, Costa Rica = 10.27%. Well that’s definitely not what Costa Rica wanted and now have an uphill battle. They have to win in Uruguay and possibly still have to survive extra time and penalties. They have some ability and can score goals against anyone. But they have to be considered longshots now.
Algeria vs Egypt
Egypt = 66.76%, Algeria = 33.24%. Algeria probably has enough to complain about to last them two lifetimes at this point, but they have to somehow put that out of their minds and try to win the playoff in Sudan. Egypt scored very late in stoppage time to force the playoff game as the two teams finished with identical points, goals scored and goals allowed both in the group and head to head. The Egyptians are the stronger team on paper and so are the favorites here, but Algeria is good enough to win this on the right day so don’t count them out just yet.
This was the last time I will have to have run sims as we will know all 32 teams by tomorrow night. Thanks to everyone who came here to read these updates as well as all the good suggestions I got to improve them. I hope you stick around as I’ll soon start to simulate the actual World Cup (I’ll try and do one before the draw and after). Thanks again for visiting.
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