vorosmccracken.com

I looked at the source data from which the ratings are derived (6,972 international matches from October 12, 2001 to October 11, 2009) and compared the predicted results in those games to the actual results. Now to fully test the system, you’d have to test it against a subset of data not used in the […]

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One game left in the group stages and lots of teams getting in and heading out. Who stepped on their plums, and who rose to the occasion? The updated National Team Rankings can be found here. Full qualification chances can be found here.

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There are several games in Africa on Sunday and one in South America (though that one is meaningless). So I’ll wait for these games to be finished before running an update. Obviously there’s been a lot of qualifications and eliminations, but I’d rather not do three separate updates this week. I’ll do everything I can […]

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So how do I predict the results of a match with these ratings? This is the huge one with two world powers vying for automatic qualification to South Africa next year. How would I sim this game? Well let’s look up what ratings we had at the last pull (they will have changed very little […]

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Just what the hell am I doing back in the vorosmccracken.com command bunker when I’m running all of these ratings and simulations? Now I’m not going to bother pretending I know anything about the effects subtle tactical and formation changes have on the outcome of a match. That’s not what I do. I’m a numbers […]

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I have been battling the sort of computer problems no one who does what I do should ever have to face, and it appears I may very well have stemmed the tide in my favor for the moment. I’m going to sleep in about a half an hour… …if I wake up tomorrow, power up […]

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A discussion below has popped up about which confederations should have how many teams. Going to do some thinking out loud here and just see what happens. To me there’s actually three main considerations:

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Who’s in? Who’s out? Should Norway celebrate? How’s Alvaro’s bets looking right now? So many questions, answers to come. The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.

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Going to change up the format a little here because so much has happened. Will go through things region by region and note the important happenings. The nitty is certainly starting to become gritty now and this will be a very long post. The updated National Team Rankings can be found here. Full qualification chances […]

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Thanks for everyone’s patience. My computer difficulties continue to plague me, but I managed to get all my files onto another machine and set everything up. So 10,000 sims for all games played through August 31, 2009.

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