Egypt’s win at home over Rwanda is the last qualifier for another month, so let’s have a look see at how things are shaping up.
The updated National Team Rankings can be found here.
Full qualification chances can be found here.
IN
North Korea = 100%. As most of you probably already know, North Korea has sent themselves to the Big Dance for the first time since their big showing in 1966. Nevertheless, regardless of who qualifies from here, they will almost certainly be one of the tournament’s biggest long shots.
African Update
Algeria = 66.12%; Morocco = 10.73%; Tunisia = 50.13; Nigeria = 49.07; Ghana = 98.08; Côte d’Ivoire = 99.31%. The Confederations Cup wasn’t the only thing happening in football on the African continent. World Cup qualifying continued in all of the groups. Most notable was that one of the biggest scheduled games, Gabon vs. Cameroon, was postponed due to the death of Gabon’s President. Algeria secured a massive 209 win in Zambia to seize control of Group C and nearly double their qualification chances. Morocco reasonably needed a home win against Togo and didn’t get it. They now need a lot of help to advance. Tunisia and Nigeria’s draw mirrors the group itself: it’s a coin-toss and the other two teams are likely playing out the string. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are on the doorstep now, expect them in South Africa next summer and expect it to become official pretty soon.
Zombies Like Warmer Climates Anyway
With the Icelandic Zombie menace finally vanquished, a new outbreak surfaced in the Mediterranean, with the Cypriots actually managing to qualify once. These Zombies will make their stand against the Irish in Cyprus in their next game.
Saudi Arabia vs. Bahrain Preview
Saudi Arabia = 57.56%; Bahrain = 24.83%; New Zealand = 17.61%. Bahrain had a golden opportunity to make the World Cup in 2006 and they fell just short against T&T. Now their path leads first through Saudi Arabia and then New Zealand. The system has the Saudis as a 2 to 1 favorite in this one, but favors both Asian teams over the Kiwis.
Data Dump
CONMEBOL Percent Brazil 100.00% Chile 96.90% Paraguay 94.60% Argentina 78.15% Uruguay 17.76% Ecuador 10.30% Colombia 2.11% Venezuela 0.18% Bolivia 0.00% Peru 0.00% CONCACAF Percent USA 93.29% Costa Rica 90.80% Mexico 65.71% Honduras 48.46% El Salvador 1.48% Trinidad and Tobago 0.26% CAF - Group1 Percent Gabon 56.42% Cameroon 24.16% Morocco 10.73% Togo 8.69% CAF - Group2 Percent Tunisia 50.13% Nigeria 49.07% Kenya 0.65% Mozambique 0.15% CAF - Group 3 Percent Algeria 66.12% Egypt 27.35% Zambia 6.11% Rwanda 0.42% CAF - Group 4 Percent Ghana 98.08% Mali 1.74% Benin 0.18% Sudan 0.00% CAF - Group 5 Percent Côte d'Ivoire 99.31% Burkina Faso 0.61% Guinea 0.08% Malawi 0.00% AFC - Group A Percent Australia 100.00% Japan 100.00% Bahrain 0.00% Qatar 0.00% Uzbekistan 0.00% AFC - Group B Percent Korea DPR 100.00% Korea Republic 100.00% Iran 0.00% Saudi Arabia 0.00% United Arab Emirates 0.00% UEFA - Group 1 Percent Denmark 94.24% Portugal 3.04% Sweden 1.60% Hungary 1.12% Albania 0.00% Malta 0.00% UEFA - Group 2 Percent Greece 57.49% Switzerland 39.01% Israel 3.44% Latvia 0.06% Luxembourg 0.00% Moldova 0.00% UEFA - Group 3 Percent Slovakia 64.39% Czech Republic 17.68% Poland 12.02% Slovenia 3.01% Northern Ireland 2.90% San Marino 0.00% UEFA - Group 4 Percent Germany 76.52% Russia 23.47% Finland 0.01% Azerbaijan 0.00% Liechtenstein 0.00% Wales 0.00% UEFA - Group 5 Percent Spain 99.83% Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.17% Armenia 0.00% Belgium 0.00% Estonia 0.00% Turkey 0.00% UEFA - Group 6 Percent England 99.62% Croatia 0.20% Ukraine 0.18% Andorra 0.00% Belarus 0.00% Kazakhstan 0.00% UEFA - Group 7 Percent Serbia 56.03% France 43.92% Romania 0.05% Austria 0.00% Faroe Islands 0.00% Lithuania 0.00% UEFA - Group 8 Percent Italy 89.27% Ireland Republic 9.70% Bulgaria 1.03% Cyprus 0.00% Georgia 0.00% Montenegro 0.00% UEFA - Group 9 Percent Netherlands 100.00% Iceland 0.00% Macedonia FYR 0.00% Norway 0.00% Scotland 0.00% UEFA - Playoffs Percent Russia 47.50% France 39.80% Croatia 27.01% Portugal 25.71% Ireland Republic 23.71% Greece 22.32% Serbia 21.64% Ukraine 21.26% Turkey 19.09% Switzerland 18.59% Czech Republic 18.18% Germany 18.12% Sweden 15.39% Bosnia-Herzegovina 12.98% Poland 11.89% Scotland 10.44% Israel 6.99% Italy 6.69% Norway 6.59% Bulgaria 6.14% Slovakia 5.07% Hungary 4.68% Denmark 3.03% Slovenia 1.64% Northern Ireland 1.49% Belarus 1.43% Romania 1.18% Macedonia FYR 0.51% England 0.28% Spain 0.16% Finland 0.14% Montenegro 0.11% Belgium 0.07% Latvia 0.06% Lithuania 0.06% Austria 0.04% Cyprus 0.01% AFC/OFC - Playoffs Percent Saudi Arabia 57.56% Bahrain 24.83% New Zealand 17.61% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF - Playoffs Percent Uruguay 20.63% Mexico 16.45% Honduras 16.34% Ecuador 13.87% Argentina 13.57% Colombia 6.67% USA 3.43% Costa Rica 2.81% Paraguay 2.74% Chile 1.66% El Salvador 0.90% Venezuela 0.72% Trinidad and Tobago 0.21% UEFA - Playoff Losses Percent Bosnia-Herzegovina 45.76% Ireland Republic 35.84% Ukraine 30.04% Russia 28.58% Switzerland 24.37% Scotland 23.00% Serbia 21.60% Hungary 15.59% Greece 14.61% Turkey 14.02% France 13.38% Slovakia 13.35% Croatia 12.63% Poland 11.80% Israel 11.62% Portugal 11.49% Sweden 11.12% Bulgaria 10.07% Czech Republic 8.86% Norway 8.46% Slovenia 7.19% Northern Ireland 6.20% Belarus 5.65% Germany 5.22% Macedonia FYR 3.02% Italy 2.76% Denmark 1.42% Romania 0.57% Finland 0.40% Montenegro 0.40% Belgium 0.35% Austria 0.22% Latvia 0.20% Lithuania 0.14% England 0.04% Cyprus 0.02% Spain 0.01% AFC - Playoff Losses Percent Bahrain 66.82% Saudi Arabia 33.18% AFC/OFC - Playoff Losses Percent New Zealand 82.39% Saudi Arabia 9.26% Bahrain 8.35% CONMEBOL/CONCACAF-PlayoffLoss Percent Honduras 29.03% Ecuador 15.55% Mexico 14.41% Uruguay 11.36% Costa Rica 6.10% El Salvador 6.08% Colombia 5.31% Argentina 3.44% USA 3.01% Paraguay 1.83% Venezuela 1.37% Chile 1.26% Trinidad and Tobago 1.23% Bolivia 0.02% Worst 2nd Place UEFA Percent Scotland 24.52% Norway 14.11% Ireland Republic 12.42% Macedonia FYR 9.35% Portugal 5.00% Czech Republic 4.86% Turkey 4.31% Poland 4.30% Hungary 3.57% Sweden 2.97% Bosnia-Herzegovina 2.80% Slovakia 1.84% Northern Ireland 1.79% Slovenia 1.54% Bulgaria 1.42% France 0.84% Ukraine 0.71% Croatia 0.59% Switzerland 0.49% Israel 0.45% Belgium 0.44% Belarus 0.36% Montenegro 0.31% Romania 0.30% Greece 0.26% Serbia 0.19% Italy 0.08% Latvia 0.04% Denmark 0.03% Lithuania 0.03% Russia 0.03% Cyprus 0.02% Austria 0.01% Estonia 0.01% Wales 0.01%
Once I get the code worked out, I’m going to run this cycle’s first simulation of the big show. I think with it less than a year away, it’s time. I can say without much hesitation that Brazil will be the favorite at this point, but much more than that is hard to know.
7 responses so far ↓
1 Edgar // Jul 7, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Thanks for the update Voros!
2 Alvaro // Jul 16, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Im trusting you man, I placed bets on Serbia and Denmark to win their group. :p
That said do you use your percentages to bet ?? If you think they are correct you should bet when the bookies give profitable odds.
3 Voros // Jul 19, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Alvaro,
As I responded to your post, I realized it would make a good post, so I’ll put up a post answering it. Thanks.
4 Ross // Jul 20, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Good work Voros, it’s addictive reading.
5 scaryice // Aug 13, 2009 at 9:19 pm
Time for another update!
6 Edgar // Aug 21, 2009 at 5:39 am
Voros, when the next update comes around, could you please include info regarding the number of adjusted points (without the points won against the 6th placed team) needed to avoid being the worst 2nd placed in Europe?
Thanks!
7 Road to South Africa 9!! // Sep 17, 2009 at 10:28 am
[…] this post in July commenter Alvaro had this to say: Im trusting you man, I placed bets on Serbia and Denmark to win […]
Leave a Comment